The question of the future of the Sum exchange rate until the end of the current year is one of the most discussed topics in Uzbekistan, especially against the backdrop of dollar exchange rate fluctuations. International financial institutions indicate that the economy of Uzbekistan continues to demonstrate high growth rates, and the Central Bank is applying a sufficiently strict monetary policy to control the level of inflation.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it is forecasted that in 2026, the economy of Uzbekistan will increase by approximately 6.8%, and the inflation rate will decrease to 6.8% by the end of the year. Furthermore, the World Bank reported that the country's international reserves reached about $70 billion, with gold accounting for approximately 86% of these reserves.
The value of the dollar depends not only on internal conditions in Uzbekistan; the key factor remains the policy of the US Federal Reserve System. When interest rates in the US are at a high level, the dollar usually strengthens, as investors prefer to place capital in dollar assets. The opposite situation arises if the Fed begins to lower rates, which may reduce interest in American currency.
IMF analysts suggest that the Sum exchange rate will maintain relative stability due to several factors: high remittances, sustainable economic growth, and substantial international reserves. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan maintains the base rate at 14%, which, in its opinion, helps reduce inflation and makes savings in the national currency more attractive. Nevertheless, exchange rate stability does not exclude investment opportunities, as even minor fluctuations in the dollar's value can open interesting prospects in the foreign exchange market.
An example is provided: if an investor started a trade to buy the EUR/USD currency pair in January 2026 at a price of about 1.158 and closed it in early February at a price of 1.202, the return would be almost 3.8%. With an investment of $1000 using a moderate multiplier of x10, the potential profit could be around 38%.
Several factors currently affect the US currency exchange rate. On the one hand, there is a gradual slowdown in the US economy, and financial market participants are closely monitoring the decisions of the Federal Reserve System regarding interest rates. On the other hand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty traditionally supports demand for the dollar as one of the leading global reserve currencies.
For Uzbekistan, significant foreign exchange reserves, a favorable situation in the gold and metals market, and a high inflow of remittances serve as additional support for stability. In light of these circumstances, the foreign exchange market may remain quite volatile until the end of the year, providing investors with the opportunity to earn profits from both currency exchange and currency quote movements.
Access to the global financial market is provided by registering on the Forex Club website, topping up a trading account, and choosing an interested currency pair, such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, or other popular instruments. An investor can open a trade calculated for the growth of the US currency if they expect it to strengthen, or open a trade for a decline in the rate if they predict weakening.
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The Central Bank of Uzbekistan presented a financial stability review for 2025, according to which the level of dollarization in both loans and deposits in the country's banking system continued to show a downward trend.
At the beginning of 2026, the share of loans issued in foreign currency accounted for 39% of the total loan portfolio of banks. During the reporting year, this share decreased by almost four percentage points. Similarly, the share of deposits attracted in foreign currency fell from 25% to 21% of the total deposit portfolio.
The Central Bank emphasizes that the reduction in the share of loan dollarization helps reduce risks associated with exchange rate changes. When the local currency weakens, payments on foreign currency loans are expressed in a larger number of soms, which could potentially worsen the financial position of borrowers and increase the number of non-performing loans.
Despite the decrease in the percentage share of foreign currency operations in overall portfolios, their actual volume in dollar terms increased. By the end of 2025, the balance of loans in foreign currency grew by 11% in dollar terms, and foreign currency deposits grew by 21%. The pace of this growth also accelerated: the annual increase in foreign currency loans increased by eight percentage points compared to 2024, and the increase in deposits by 19 percentage points.
Thus, the reduction in the level of dollarization only reflects a smaller share of foreign currency in rapidly growing loan and deposit portfolios, but does not mean a decrease in the actual volumes of foreign currency requirements and liabilities. The Central Bank warns that the growth of foreign currency loans expands credit risk, which may manifest when the exchange rate changes. The growth of foreign currency deposits, in turn, may increase liquidity risks, as depositors may transfer their funds to foreign assets if the opportunity for free international investment arises.
By the end of the year, the difference between the foreign currency requirements and liabilities of the banking system increased to 4 trillion soms. According to the Central Bank's estimates, the expansion of this gap signals a possible increase in bank losses if currency risks materialize. Nevertheless, the overall currency position of banks remained within established norms. On January 1, 2026, the ratio of net open foreign currency position to regulatory capital was 2.7%, which, in the opinion of the Central Bank, indicates the banking system's sufficient ability to cover potential losses from currency risks.
Previously, the Chairman of the Central Bank, Timur Ishmetov, noted that the de-dollarization of the economy—the reduction in the share of foreign currency deposits and loans—is one of the positive results of increasing confidence in the national currency. Since 2018, the share of deposit dollarization has fallen from 41.2% to 20%, and for loans—from 54.3% to 37.4%.
