Foreign portfolio investors channeled 84,290 crore rupees into Indian stocks in the first half of November
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Foreign portfolio investors channeled 84,290 crore rupees into Indian stocks in the first half of November

Foreign investors demonstrated a strong resurgence of interest in Indian stocks during the first two weeks of November, channeling 84,290 crore rupees. This inflow followed two consecutive months of net capital outflows—October saw a reduction of 34,843 crore rupees, and September saw a reduction of 35,861 crore rupees, according to depository data.

According to the presented data, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) made net investments of 84,290 crore rupees in Indian equities between November 2nd and 13th, covering nine trading sessions.

Thanks to these latest injections, the cumulative outflow of FPIs from Indian stocks in 2026 has reduced to approximately 2.1 trillion rupees, compared to nearly 3 trillion rupees noted a few weeks ago.

Forecasts and Growth Factors

Vedant Ghopte, co-founder and CEO of the investment platform Trackk, noted that the buying by foreign investors in November is a sharp tactical shift, not yet a structural return. He explained that the fall in crude oil prices and the reallocation of funds from the overstretched Asian artificial intelligence sector prompted FPIs to lower India's extremely low valuation, with most of these purchases directed towards index heavyweights.

Ghopte also added that despite the recent buying activity, FPIs have only recovered a small portion of their total outflows for the current year, while domestic institutional investors are using market growth to book profits.

The shift in sentiment was largely triggered by the sell-off in global AI-related stocks, which pushed investors to seek opportunities outside markets with high technology concentration, according to Rohan Goyal, an investment research analyst at MIRA Money.

Other factors supporting the inflow included the drop in crude oil prices, as Brent crude fell by about 13 percent in the first week of November to nearly $97 per barrel, weakening geopolitical concerns, attractive valuations in select large-cap stocks, and improved domestic income forecasts, added Goyal.

Sustained buying by foreign investors helped the Nifty benchmark surpass the 25,000 mark.

Sectoral Dynamics and Future Prospects

Aggressive buying was observed across financial, telecommunications, capital goods, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors, leading to confident stock growth in these segments. Additionally, some energy-related stocks rose amid strong earnings, reported VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

Another key factor contributing to the sharp rise in Nifty was the reduction in short positions in leading large bank stocks. Moving forward, Indian markets will monitor the protocols of the US Federal Reserve, crude oil prices amidst tensions between Iran and the Persian Gulf, rupee movement, and expectations of an RBI rate hike next week.

Dhiraj Gaur, Director of Investment Strategy at Choice Wealth, noted that key drivers of market sentiment will remain FPI flows, second-quarter earnings announcements, broader market participation, and Nifty's ability to sustain levels above 25,000, alongside the development of the global AI trade unwinding.

In the debt segment, foreign investors placed 7,815 crore rupees through the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) and 1,167 crore rupees through the general route, while withdrawing 702 crore rupees through the Voluntary Repatriation Route (VRR).

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Inflow of foreign portfolio investors' funds into government securities via FAR increased by nearly 8,000 crore rupees amid rupee strengthening and yield decline
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Inflow of foreign portfolio investors' funds into government securities via FAR increased by nearly 8,000 crore rupees amid rupee strengthening and yield decline

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) increased their investments in government securities through the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) by almost 8,000 crore rupees during the first week of November. This growth was driven by the strengthening of the rupee and the decrease in bond yields.

According to data collected by PTI from the Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL), FPI assets in FAR government securities reached 3.65 lakh crore rupees on November 9. This is compared to 3.57 lakh crore rupees on November 2, representing an increase of approximately 7,968.782 crore rupees.

During the same period, the Indian rupee strengthened from 94.90 on November 2 to 93.74 against the US dollar as of today. Furthermore, the yield on the 10-year benchmark government security decreased by almost 0.14 percentage points, standing at 7.178 percent on Monday compared to 7.315 percent on November 2.

The rupee's recovery was supported by easing crude oil prices, increased inflows from foreign funds, and hopes for reduced tensions in the Middle East. The price of Brent crude, which traded above $105 per barrel before US mid-term results, fell to $96.41 per barrel on Monday.

An additional factor boosting investor sentiment was the rise in global artificial intelligence-related stocks, prompting foreign investors to return to Indian equities. The combination of stronger capital inflow and lower oil prices weakened pressure on the national currency.

The strengthening of the rupee increases dollar-denominated returns for foreign investors, while the fall in bond yields generates market value appreciation on existing bond assets, potentially increasing the attractiveness of Indian government securities.

The growth in FAR share also occurs against a backdrop where foreign investors had been selling assets in recent months due to concerns over global interest rates, currency volatility, and uncertainty related to India's inclusion in global bond index funds. Previously, FPI investments in Indian government securities via FAR had sharply dropped by 17,054.216 crore rupees over three months due to changes in global yield dynamics and rising currency risk. CCIL data showed that foreign investors withdrew 5,615.212 crore rupees in October, 10,592.894 crore rupees in September, and 846.11 crore rupees in August.

Foreign portfolio investors withdrew 34,843 crore rupees from Indian stocks in October
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Foreign portfolio investors withdrew 34,843 crore rupees from Indian stocks in October

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew 34,843 crore Indian rupees from the Indian stock market in October, marking the second consecutive month of significant capital outflow. This outflow occurred amid concerns related to high crude oil prices, global interest rates, and corporate earnings forecasts.

Nevertheless, at the end of October, foreign investors reversed their position to buyers, investing about 6,300 crore rupees between October 26 and 30. This contrasts with a net outflow of nearly 2,700 crore rupees during the week ending October 23.

According to data from the Central Depository Services (CDSL), FPIs withdrew 35,861 crore rupees in September. Previously, they had invested 20,200 crore rupees in July and 29,631 crore rupees in August. Including the latest withdrawals, the cumulative outflow of FPIs from Indian equities in 2026 reached 2.95 trillion rupees.

Market experts note that the recent improvement in flows signals a shift in short-term sentiment, but one week of buying does not guarantee a sustained reversal.

Forecasts and influencing factors

Anat K Rathi, co-founder of MIRA Money, stated that overall, foreign selling remained substantial throughout October, reflecting concerns over elevated crude oil prices, global interest rates, and prospects for corporate profits. He added that higher crude oil prices create risks for inflation and the margins of Indian companies, while attractive yields in the US continue to influence global capital allocation.

Rathi emphasized that the sustainability of the recent improvement in foreign flows will depend on greater clarity regarding global macroeconomic conditions, crude oil prices, and earnings forecasts. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors played a crucial role in absorbing foreign selling and maintaining market stability.

In the three out of four trading sessions concluding on October 30, FPIs acted as net buyers in the money market, indicating a possible improvement in their view of Indian stocks.

Vikeyakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, suggested that the US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, the attractive valuation of large Indian stocks, and signs of steady domestic economic growth may have contributed to the change in investor sentiment. He also noted that the weakening of global AI trade could be another factor affecting portfolio allocation.

The improvement in FPI flows also helped the Nifty index recover to the 23,000 level. Vikeyakumar added that while foreign investors continued to sell financial stocks of large companies, they selectively accumulated pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks, as well as individual digital platform companies.

Pabitra Mukerjee, Deputy Vice President of Research at Bajaj Broking, believes that the turnaround in FPI flows is encouraging for market sentiment, although higher crude oil prices and global event risks may limit momentum.

Market participants will closely watch the results of the US midterm elections next week, as well as the movement in Brent crude oil prices, the escalation of conflicts between the US and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine, alongside current quarterly earnings announcements. These factors are predicted to remain key drivers of investor sentiment in the near term.

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