Gap in Methane Reduction at COP31: Analysis of Promise Fulfillment

According to a report presented at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31), the world's soils in their current state of degradation are capable of releasing more carbon dioxide (CO2) annually than the planet's entire vehicle fleet combined.

The document, prepared by the international organization 'Save Soil,' indicates that without action, global soils could release up to 4.81 billion tons of CO2 per year. This figure exceeds the emissions of all Earth's cars and vans and is about 90 times greater than Portugal's emissions.

However, the report, published at COP31, which is taking place until November 20th in Antalya, Turkey, notes that restoring degraded agricultural lands could provide up to 27% of the necessary emission reduction to keep warming below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial period, without harming harvests.

Titled 'How Soil Can Save the Paris Agreement,' published by 'Save Soil' and the international initiative '4 por 1000' (created in 2015 to promote increasing organic carbon in agricultural soils), the document highlights both the consequences of inaction and the critical importance of soil in combating climate change.

The report warns that if nothing is done in the next twenty years, soils will release more CO2 than in two full years of global emissions. It also emphasizes that soil stores more carbon than the atmosphere and all vegetation combined.

The document explains that plants absorb CO2 from the air and store it underground through their roots. When soil is plowed, left unprotected, or subjected to erosion, a significant portion of this carbon returns to the atmosphere as CO2.

The report stresses the need to restore degraded agricultural lands using 'regenerative' farming methods, returning CO2 to the soil. This is considered an urgent measure because, according to the UN, 'up to 40% of the planet's land is already degraded.'

During COP31, which continues until the 20th, it was also noted that over 70% of countries have not included soil restoration in their climate change mitigation plans.

The international organization drew attention to Portugal's plans, which aim to exceed the European Union's goal for carbon absorption in land use and forests by 2030, but pointed out that the territory lagged between 2021 and 2023, and that 58% of continental Portugal is subject to desertification.

'Save Soil' refers to the European Environment Agency, stating that overall EU soils are losing carbon—meaning they are emitting CO2 instead of absorbing it—because, according to the European Commission, 60%–70% of European soils are in poor condition.

The second day of discussions at the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), held in Turkey, concluded with focus on promoting global electrification and phasing out fossil fuels. The working agenda was also approved on this day.

The conference chairman, Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum, noted the positive start to negotiations following the adoption of the working agenda, as similar procedures at UN meetings previously led to multi-day deadlocks. Kurum reiterated the call for cooperation to solve this global problem, stating: 'We want this COP to be a COP of implementation and to adopt decisions that change the situation.'

The second day of COP31 centered on energy and transport issues. It was marked by calls to accelerate the transition, which is necessary not only to reduce emissions but also to protect economies from oil and gas price volatility. For instance, UN Secretary-General António Guterres made similar statements.

Simon Stiel, UN Executive Secretary for Climate Change, emphasized that in less than ten years, renewable energy has surpassed coal in global electricity generation. He compared this progress to what was 'unimaginable' at the time the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that the current energy crisis has shifted government priorities. He noted that for the first time in a long time, energy security goals and the transition to clean energy are closely linked. Birol also reported that electric vehicle sales outside of China grew by 60% over the last nine months, and the number of nuclear power plants under construction reached 90 gigawatts—the highest level in four decades.

Turkey and Australia, which jointly chair the conference, advocate for increasing the share of electricity in global energy consumption from the current 23% to 35% by 2035. However, this proposal faces resistance from hydrocarbon-producing countries, who object to the electrification goal because it implies the exclusive use of renewable and nuclear energy sources.

Birol added that this commitment could, in any case, send a clear signal to markets that 'electricity is the future.'

The day was also remembered for Brazil's presentation of a roadmap designed to help countries gradually phase out oil, coal, and gas. This initiative aims to translate commitments made in Dubai in 2023 into concrete measures, marking the first time the start of the fossil fuel transition was agreed upon. The document does not set mandatory requirements but provides tools for assessing each country's energy dependence and developing strategies tailored to its realities.

During the presentation, former US Secretary of State John Kerry stated: 'We don't need more promises. We need plans,' a sentiment supported by the UN Secretary-General.

Mobility issues in Antalya, which began with the opening of COP31 on Monday, worsened today due to traffic restrictions imposed before the arrival of heads of state and government. The President of Brazil was among those who arrived at the world leaders' summit today, Wednesday. Turkish authorities suspended classes on Wednesday and Thursday to reduce traffic during the leaders' meeting on those days.

Swedish activist Greta Thunberg participated in the conference, returning to the UN climate summit for the first time since Glasgow (UK) in 2021. She criticized the fact that despite decades of negotiations, emissions continue to rise.

The 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) has begun in Turkey. The event takes place after a year marked by extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves, generating tensions regarding the financial resources needed for adaptation and mitigation of the climate emergency.

António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, called on leaders to 'be up to the task,' while Murat Kurum, Turkish Minister of Environment and conference president, emphasized during the opening session that 'any delay weighs particularly heavily on climate action.'

In 2026, the planet was again affected by climate change, evidenced by fatal floods in Nepal, heatwaves in Europe, and fires in Indonesia. Simultaneously, the energy crisis, driven by the Middle East conflict, has pressured costs and created significant budgetary challenges for governments, which ultimately diminishes climate ambition.

Held at the large exhibition center of the Turkish coastal city of Antalya, COP31 aims primarily to transform commitments made in previous UN meetings into practical measures. Maria da Graça Carvalho, Portugal's Minister of Environment and Energy, had previously argued that COP31 should be a conference focused on actions.

COP31, which brings together nearly 200 nations under the UN umbrella and has 68,544 accredited participants, is expected to be the forum for the 'implementation' of promises, according to Murat Kurum. Delegations spent the early hours of the start day negotiating the agenda. The main point of disagreement lies in the funding promised by developed countries—historically the largest greenhouse gas emitters—to developing countries.

A representative from the European Union had already signaled on Friday a lack of political will to increase spending. Jasper Inventor, leader of the Greenpeace delegation, described the start of COP31 as 'difficult,' warning that rich countries are refusing, especially, to include certain funding items on the agenda.

The 'Climate Finance Working Programme,' a mechanism defined at COP30 in Brazil in 2025 to discuss financial agreements, will be officially discussed. However, the tripling of funding for climate change adaptation, crucial for protecting nations most susceptible to droughts, floods, or sea-level rise, is not guaranteed.

The UN reported last week that developing countries will need $305 billion annually by 2035, an amount almost ten times higher than what they currently receive from wealthy nations. Simon Stiell, the UN's Climate Change Officer, acknowledged that 'frustration is palpable' in this context.

Another controversial issue is Turkey's intention to make electrification a central focus of COP31, suggesting that countries commit to raising the share of electricity in global energy consumption to 35% by 2035, compared to the current 20%. The European Union supports electrification with renewable sources, a position also defended by Maria da Graça Carvalho. However, several hydrocarbon-producing countries show resistance to accepting this proposal.

COP30, held in Belém, in the Brazilian Amazon, concluded without explicitly mentioning fossil fuels. In contrast, Brazil presented last week a 'roadmap' for countries to voluntarily replace oil, coal, and gas with renewable energies.

During a summit co-chaired by Turkey and Australia, Chris Bowen, Australian Minister for Climate Change, encouraged delegations to overcome divergences and prove that international cooperation can still yield results. He argued that 'we will show the world that multilateralism works,' despite the boycott by the US government, motivated by President Donald Trump's denial of climate change.