Serious air pollution has been observed in Lahore, the capital of Punjab province in Pakistan, over the past few weeks. The city's air quality index remained at a hazardous level for several days, causing breathing problems among the population, school closures, and an increase in health issues. Consequently, political statements have intensified.
The Central Minister for Information of Pakistan, Mariam Aurangzeb, attributed the deterioration of air quality in Lahore to fireworks used during the Diwali celebration in India. However, recent reports and satellite data cast doubt on this assertion.
According to a report by the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative (PAQI), the primary cause of pollution in Lahore lies in stubble burning within Pakistan's Punjab province, rather than celebratory fireworks from neighboring India.
When air quality deteriorates, accusations against neighboring countries often arise without sufficient basis. Nevertheless, scientific data indicates that the problem has deeper domestic roots. The Pakistan Air Quality team analyzed satellite data from early October to the first week of November. According to their data, 16,312 potential instances of stubble burning were recorded in Pakistani Punjab between October 1 and November 8. This figure was comparable to the previous year and approximately three times higher than the number of fires recorded in Punjab, India.
The report, published in the Dawn newspaper, found a total of 18,825 fire hotspots between November 1 and November 9, 89% of which were linked to stubble burning. The highest concentration of fires was observed in the districts of Sheikhupura, Jhang, Okara, Hafizabad, and Gujranwala, which accounted for 54% of the total fires.
When the wind blew from these burning fields towards Lahore, the average PM 2.5 level in the city reached 175 micrograms per cubic meter. On other days, this figure hovered around 93 micrograms. This means that on days of fires, the pollution level increased by 87 percent. A similar pattern was noted in Multan and Bahawalpur: on days when fires occurred, the average PM 2.5 level in Multan reached 203, whereas on normal days it was 88.
These figures clearly demonstrate the direct impact of local crop burning on the atmosphere of the cities. Although the number of fires related to crops in Pakistani Punjab was 8 percent higher than the average for the 2020–2025 period, there was also a slight downward trend compared to the previous year.
During this period, the average PM 2.5 level in Lahore was 126 micrograms per cubic meter, which is eight times higher than the World Health Organization's recommendations and significantly above national environmental quality standards.
Several voices, including Mariam Aurangzeb, linked Lahore's pollution to fireworks launched in India during Diwali. PAQI investigated this claim by studying the air back trajectory. It was found that on Diwali night and the following day, many air masses reaching Lahore, Kasur, and Sialkot passed over Indian territory, primarily through the areas of Tarn Taran, Amritsar, and Jammu. However, the available evidence does not support a link between poor air in Lahore and cross-border fireworks.
After Diwali, the average PM 2.5 level in Lahore increased by only 10 percent compared to the preceding seven days. In cities away from the border, such as Faisalabad and Multan, the increase reached 40 percent. If the pollution were coming from India, a greater impact would be expected on border cities, but the observed pattern was the opposite. Air coming from Delhi did not reach Lahore; instead, it headed towards Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan, remaining hundreds of kilometers away from Lahore.
Although analyzing elements such as potassium, strontium, and barium could provide answers, Pakistani monitoring centers do not currently conduct such measurements. Therefore, based on available meteorological and satellite data, local fires are considered the main cause at present. Despite Pakistan having previously warned about this issue multiple times, effective solutions remain distant, as farmers face economic pressure and alternative equipment is costly.
