According to a new study by the consulting firm Cavendish Maxwell, more than one in five tenants in Dubai now pays less than they did under their previous contract. This is linked to the increase in the volume of ready-to-live housing, which gives tenants greater negotiating power.
In the third quarter of 2026, 21.4 percent of rental transactions recorded a decrease in rent compared to the previous contract, significantly higher than the 4.8 percent registered in the first quarter. Meanwhile, 38.7 percent renewed contracts on the same terms, while the share of deals with increased rates fell to 40 percent from 59.4 percent during the same period.
Cavendish Maxwell notes that this shift indicates a weakening of landlords' pricing power and an expansion of tenants' opportunities for negotiation. The average rental rate in September was 77.3 dirhams per square foot per year, which is 5.5 percent higher compared to the previous year. This sharp slowdown contrasts with the 11.5 percent annual growth recorded in September 2025. Rates initially decreased in the second quarter before recovering in the third quarter to the level of March 2026.
More than 172,000 rental contracts were registered in the third quarter. The total number of renewals was 94,300, which is 10.6 percent lower than last year, while new contracts increased by 18.2 percent, reaching 77,700.
The consulting firm predicts that the growth in the available stock will put pressure on rent growth rates in the future, especially in the apartment segment, which constitutes the largest share of completed projects. The average rental yield was 6.6 percent for apartments and 4.9 percent for villas and townhouses in the third quarter. The yield for apartments slightly decreased compared to the previous year but remains attractive against other major global housing markets.
The leaders in apartment yields were Dubai Investments Park (10 percent), International City (9 percent), and Dubai Production City (8 percent). Among villas and townhouses, Dubai Industrial City led with 6.5 percent, surpassing Jumeirah Golf Estates (5.8 percent) and Damac Hills 2 (5.7 percent).
From January to September, Dubai delivered about 38,000 residential units, which is 41.4 percent more than in the same period of 2025, exceeding the annual figures for 2023 and 2024. Only about 12,400 homes were delivered in the third quarter. Another 24,400 properties are planned for the remainder of 2026, but based on historical delivery rates, the actual number of delivered properties is expected to be between 7,300 and 12,200. The planned volume is even higher, with 136,100 units scheduled for 2027 and 155,700 for 2028, totaling 291,800.
Ronan Arthur, Director and Head of Residential Property Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, noted that 'the reduction in launches highlights a significant slowdown in development pace caused by developer caution and regional uncertainty, leading to the postponement of some projects. Meanwhile, the volume of new units planned for delivery over the next two years is quite substantial, even considering the delivery rates.'
He added that demand absorption will depend on population growth, household formation, employment, and investment demand.
Residential sales volume reached 72.6 billion dirhams in the third quarter across 33,900 transactions, which is 13.2 percent less than the third quarter of last year and 2 percent less than the second quarter of the current year. Year-on-year, the value dropped by 47.6 percent, and volumes by 38.6 percent, resulting in transactions reaching the lowest quarterly level since the first quarter of 2024.
The average selling price was 1,644 dirhams per square foot in September, which is 2.2 percent lower compared to the previous year. This marks the first annual decline since the start of the post-pandemic recovery, after prices turned negative in August. However, prices rose by 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter.
Off-plan deals accounted for 72.2 percent of total transactions, or 24,500 deals worth 47.1 billion dirhams, but they decreased by 41.9 percent compared to last year. Transactions in the ready market grew by 19.7 percent compared to the second quarter, reaching 9,400, although they are still 28 percent below the third quarter of 2025.
Arthur stated: 'After two years of sustained sales activity growth, transaction volumes have been declining over the last four quarters, with purchases in the third quarter of 2026 being at the lowest level since the first quarter of 2024 and more than 38 percent below peak levels recorded a year ago. Cavendish Maxwell reports a more subdued investment environment in recent months, and this latest observation underscores how regional tension continues to affect investor confidence and buyer sentiment.'
Dubai South led off-plan apartment sales with 4,776 transactions, more than 2.5 times the figure for Downtown Jebel Ali (1,865). Following them were Azizi Milan (1,283), Jumeirah Village Circle (1,153), and Dubai Residence Complex (946).
In the ready segment, Jumeirah Village Circle maintained the top spot with 1,111 apartment sales, double the figure for Business Bay (555). Sobha Sanctuary led off-plan villa and townhouse sales with 282, while Damac Lagoons led in ready villa and townhouse sales with 211.
Luxury homes priced at 20 million dirhams and above were sold in quantity 257 for 9.6 billion dirhams, a 40.5 percent decrease compared to last year. Sales of ultra-luxury homes, priced at 50 million dirhams and above, amounted to 42 transactions worth 3.4 billion dirhams, with nine properties sold for over 100 million dirhams.
Developers launched 48 projects with 15,300 units in the third quarter, which is 72.7 percent and 62.9 percent less than last year, respectively, although the launch of units more than doubled compared to the second quarter. In the first nine months, 190 projects with 49,800 units were launched, which is 67.7 percent and 65.5 percent less than the same period in 2025.
Cavendish Maxwell believes that developer caution and regional uncertainty have prompted many to postpone project launches. The company expects downward price pressure to continue until 2027, and rent growth will continue to slow down.
