Average loan interest rate in Uzbekistan fell to 20.4% in September 2026

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan sees the possibility of gradually lowering its key interest rate below the 10% mark between 2027 and 2029, provided that inflation sustainably slows down to the target level of 5%.

This prospect was stated by Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Nodirbek Achilov during a press conference dedicated to the decision on the key rate and the main directions of the regulator's monetary policy for the next three years.

Achilov noted that if the conclusion is reached regarding the reduction of inflation to the target level and the continued fall in inflation expectations, there may be a chance to reduce the rate to a single-digit level within the framework of monetary policy.

The regulator does not have a pre-approved schedule for rate reductions. According to the deputy chairman, decisions on easing monetary policy will depend on actual inflation trends, inflation expectations among the population and businesses, as well as an assessment of economic risks.

The Central Bank's baseline scenario assumes that inflation will approach the target figure of 5% in the second half of 2027 and remain at this level in 2028–2029. It is projected that core inflation, which was 5.5% in September, will slow down to 4–5% in 2027 and then reach about 4%.

As prices stabilize, the regulator plans to gradually transition from tight monetary conditions to neutral ones. Preliminary calculations by the Central Bank indicate a real interest rate range of 4–5%.

Achilov emphasized that real interest rates must remain positive, as this supports the attractiveness of savings in the national currency and curbs excessive growth in consumer demand.

At the November 4 meeting, the Central Bank Council considered two options: keeping the rate at 14% or reducing it to 13.5%. Arguments in favor of lowering the rate were supported by the decrease in inflation expectations and the stabilization of core inflation.

In September, inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 8.7% among households and 9.2% among enterprises. The deputy chairman also drew attention to the positive dynamics of the sum and other macroeconomic factors.

Nevertheless, Achilov stated that the possibility of lowering the rate requires further discussion, noting that the option of maintaining the rate at 14% received more votes from Council members.

The Central Bank explains its decision to maintain tight monetary conditions due to strong domestic demand and external inflationary risks. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in September compared to 6.2% in August, caused by rising prices for some foodstuffs, fuel, and services. Service sector inflation reached 7%.

The regulator also takes into account potential fluctuations in global food and energy prices, as well as secondary effects from increased regulated prices.

Within the main directions of monetary policy for 2027–2029, the Central Bank intends to revise its interest rate corridor. Currently, this corridor is plus or minus two percentage points around the key rate, covering a range from 12% to 16%.

Since the regulator is moving towards lower rates, the existing corridor may prove too wide. Therefore, the Central Bank is considering gradually narrowing it. It expects that improvements in operational structure will help transmit changes in the key rate to money and financial markets faster.

The key rate has remained unchanged at 14% since March 2025, when the Central Bank raised it from 13.5%.

According to data from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the volume of bank lending to the industrial sector of Uzbekistan reached 133.4 trillion sums as of October 1, 2026, representing an 8.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. Previously, on October 1, 2025, outstanding loans for this sector amounted to 146.3 trillion sums.

This reduction occurred against the backdrop of an overall growth in the banks' loan portfolio, which increased by 13.2% to reach 659.1 trillion sums. As a result, the share of industry in the total lending volume decreased from 25.1% to 20.2%, and the industry's loan portfolio shrank by 12.9 trillion sums.

The construction sector demonstrated the fastest growth in lending, with loans increasing by 33.4% over the year to reach 22.9 trillion sums, raising its share in the total portfolio from 3% to 3.5%. Similar growth rates were observed in the trade and public services sectors, where loans grew by 31.7% to 53.9 trillion sums, and their share increased from 7% to 8.2%.

Loans for transport and communications grew by 16.4% to 37.9 trillion sums. Agriculture received 68 trillion sums in loans, which is 14.5% more than last year, while the sector's share in the total portfolio remained around 10%. Lending for material and technical supplies and sales grew slower, increasing by only 2.9% to 4.6 trillion sums. Loans for housing and communal services grew by 9.2% to 2 trillion sums.

Other sectors saw a 24% increase in loans, reaching 88 trillion sums, and their share in the portfolio rose from 12.2% to 13.4%.

Individuals remain the largest category of borrowers. Household loans increased by 19% year-on-year, reaching 248.4 trillion sums, accounting for 37.7% of the total portfolio, compared to 35.8% the previous year. The retail loan portfolio is now 1.9 times larger than industrial loans, whereas last year this ratio was 1.4.

The total volume of corporate lending grew by 9.9% over the year, amounting to 410.7 trillion sums, which is about twice as slow as the growth in retail lending. Industry accounts for approximately one-third of this corporate loan portfolio. Collectively, individuals, industry, and agriculture account for more than two-thirds of Uzbekistan's total bank lending portfolio.

As of October 1, 2026, commercial banks in Uzbekistan have provided 2,362 loans totaling 35.9 billion sums under the 'From Poverty to Prosperity' program. These funds are intended to support the population in purchasing equipment and other fixed assets, which will allow for expanding income sources, developing self-employment, and creating small production enterprises.

The largest share of financing was directed towards the purchase of sewing equipment, with 13.2 billion sums allocated for 925 sewing machines. Additionally, 7.1 billion sums went to finance 419 units of food production equipment.

The loans also covered expenses for purchasing 496 laptops worth 5.6 billion sums and 272 passenger cars amounting to 5.4 billion sums. Another 4.5 billion sums was allocated for the acquisition of 250 various fixed assets.

The leaders in lending volume were Xalq bank, which issued 1,587 loans totaling 23.6 billion sums. Mikrokreditbank provided 569 loans for a total of 8.6 billion sums, and Agrobank allocated 206 loans for 3.6 billion sums.

By region, the highest number of loans was issued in Jizzakh Region—321 loans. This was followed by Tashkent Region with 307 loans, and Syrdarya Region registered 262 loans.

The goal of this program is to stimulate entrepreneurial activity, increase household incomes, and create additional sources of earnings by helping citizens obtain the necessary equipment and assets for economic activity.