In the run-up to COP31, the climate goals recently presented by countries indicate a possible decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions of only 6% by the year 2035. This percentage represents a reduction ten times lower than what is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
This alert was issued by the United Nations (UN), which points out that despite the commitments made since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the planet is still far from controlling its temperature increase.
The assessment, released this Tuesday (27) by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), occurs shortly before COP31, scheduled to take place between November 9 and 20 in Antalya, Turkey.
The document analyzed 127 new national climate goals, known as NDCs, which were submitted between January 2024 and August 2026. These goals cover 154 participants in the Paris Agreement, including the European Union and its members, who are responsible for about 71% of global emissions recorded in 2019, excluding deforestation and land use changes.
According to the UN, even if all new commitments are fully met, global emissions will tend to be only 6% below 2019 levels on average by 2035. To keep warming within the 1.5°C limit, or with a small and temporary excess, emissions should fall by approximately 60% in the same period, according to estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The 1.5°C target was established by the Paris Agreement in 2015 with the aim of preventing severe climate impacts, such as droughts, sea-level rise, and glacier melt. However, recent studies suggest that the world may have already surpassed this critical point. To limit the temperature increase to less than 2°C, the required reduction would be approximately 37%.
The UN also calculated that if all actions planned in the new goals are fully implemented, including those depending on international support and funding, the reduction could reach 9% by 2035. Although these goals are the main mechanism of the Paris Agreement against the climate crisis, the document signals that global emissions may peak before 2030 and only begin to decline in subsequent years.
The projection indicates that the annual volume of greenhouse gases should be between 49.6 billion and 55.9 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2035. This metric allows for the summation of various gases, taking into account the warming potential of each.
However, the predicted reduction will still be insufficient to prevent the planet from exceeding the 1.5°C limit. Based on national goals and future projections, global warming could reach 3.2°C by the end of the century.
The UN report also offers a second estimate, considering countries' long-term objectives, such as the commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. In this scenario, projected warming would be between 1.7°C and 2.3°C by 2100, provided that countries meet their long-term goals and adopt reduction measures in the coming decades.
Additionally, the report warns that the CO2 emission limit compatible with the 1.5°C goal, known as the carbon budget, may be exhausted before 2030. According to the UN, this limit is about 130 billion tons of CO2 starting from early 2026, which is equivalent to approximately three years of current global emissions. In contrast, the forecast indicates that countries will emit about 368 billion tons of CO2 between 2026 and 2035, a volume almost three times higher than the limit available to keep warming at 1.5°C.
What has changed in countries' commitments
Despite the results presented, the UN recognizes that governments have incorporated more climate change combat initiatives into their national goals. Approximately 90% of the participating countries analyzed declared that they had taken into account the conclusions of the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, held at COP28 in Dubai in 2023.
Furthermore, 99% of countries presented internal measures to reduce emissions, focusing primarily on the energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and waste management sectors. Energy transition is among the central priorities for countries, according to the UN analysis.
The percentage of participants who proposed modernizing electricity grids increased from 51% to 70%, while the proportion of those planning to expand energy storage rose from 33% to 56%. The report also highlights that 92% of participants included methane in their climate goals and 90% presented commitments related to land use and forests, such as reforestation and combating deforestation.
However, the advances show inequality. A second report, based on 137 national documents released this Tuesday, revealed that 61 participants progressed towards climate goals, while another 27 moved away from the objectives or showed mixed results. The UN emphasizes that such progress does not guarantee that countries are reducing their emissions at the necessary rate to meet agreements.
Adaptation and climate finance
Adaptation to the effects of climate change also gained prominence in the new goals. The UN reported that 86% of participants integrated measures in this area, aiming to protect food production, water resources, and health, in addition to preventing disasters.
Among these countries, 92% mentioned losses and damages caused by climate change, such as economic losses, infrastructure destruction, and deaths in extreme events, a number higher than the 56% registered in previous goals.
Nevertheless, the implementation of these measures faces obstacles. By October 2026, 81 developing nations had presented national adaptation plans, but 36 of the 41 plans evaluated among small island states and least developed countries were still in initial stages of implementation.
Financing remains a significant challenge. Global climate investments reached an average of US$ 1.9 trillion annually in 2023 and 2024, representing a 32% growth compared to the previous two-year period. Of this amount, only 9% was directed to international transfers to developing countries, corresponding to approximately US$ 183 billion annually.
Resources specifically allocated to adaptation totaled US$ 63 billion per year, which constitutes a 20% drop and represents only 3% of identified global climate financing. On the other hand, developed countries exceeded the promise to mobilize US$ 100 billion annually to support developing nations in 2023 and 2024, reaching US$ 132.8 billion and US$ 136.7 billion, respectively. It should be noted that this goal was originally supposed to be met in 2020.
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