According to data from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, inflation expectations among the population of Uzbekistan for the next 12 months in September 2026 decreased to 8.7%, compared to 9.8% in August. A similar decrease was noted in business inflation expectations, which stood at 9.2% versus 9.6% in the previous month.
These results were obtained based on a monthly survey involving 2,726 residents and 1,043 enterprises. It is reported that the figures presented are weighted averages. The median inflation expectation among households remained unchanged at 8% in September, while the median among enterprises increased from 8% to 9%.
Perceived inflation by the population also decreased to 9.2% in September, down from 10.1% in August; the median estimate in this category was 8%.
Differences in Expectations Across Population Groups
Among various population groups, pensioners showed the highest inflation expectations at 12.4%. They were followed by in-home service employees with expectations of 10.6% and transport service workers with 9.9%. The lowest forecasts were recorded among retail workers (7.8%) and students (7.9%).
In the business sector, the highest inflation expectations were registered in the transport services sector (10.7%), crafts (9.8%), and trade (9.7%). The tourism business reported the lowest forecasts at 7.5%.
Regional Differences in Inflation Expectations
In Tashkent, residents recorded the highest inflation expectations at 11.6%. The lowest figures were noted in Khorezm region (6.8%) and Namangan region (7.1%). In the capital, 17% of respondents predict price growth of 17% or more. In Khorezm region, 70% of those surveyed expect inflation not higher than 8%.
Among enterprises, the highest expectations were recorded in Samarkand region (10.2%) and Fergana region (10.1%), while the figure in Kashkadarya region was the lowest at 7.5%.
Inflation expectations were also strongly dependent on income level. Respondents whose monthly income exceeds 30 million soums expected inflation growth up to 14.4%, while those earning between 20 and 30 million soums predicted 11.3%. Among those surveyed with a monthly income of no more than 2 million soums, the expected inflation rate was 7.6%.
A similar pattern was observed when assessing perceived inflation: this indicator reached 15.9% among individuals with incomes over 30 million soums and 7.7% among those whose income did not exceed 2 million soums.
Main Factors Causing Price Concerns
Residents continue to cite rising fuel and energy prices as the main cause of inflation, noted by 50% of respondents. The increase in utility costs was mentioned by 38%. The share of respondents naming utilities as a factor decreased from 53% in August. Meanwhile, the share of those expecting an increase in staple food prices rose from 21% to 31%.
The share of residents pointing to monopolies and artificial price increases increased from 21% to 30%, and the share citing exchange rate fluctuations rose from 14% to 22%. Businesses most often cited rising fuel and energy prices (52% of respondents) and increased utility expenses (38%) as reasons for price increases.
The share of enterprises indicating an increase in raw material prices rose from 19% to 37%. The share citing high tax burden increased from 15% in August to 29%, and concerns about deteriorating competitive conditions rose from 16% to 25%.
Most Noticeable Price Increases in Goods and Services
Among goods and services whose prices, according to residents, have risen most sharply, meat and dairy products ranked first, mentioned by 56% of respondents. Fuel and gasoline were named by 53%, and electricity and natural gas by 36%. The percentage of residents reporting an increase in transport tariffs and transport service prices rose from 13% in August to 24% in September. The share of those who noted price increases in cafes and restaurants grew from 13% to 22%.
Conversely, a smaller number of respondents reported price increases in fruits and vegetables; their share decreased to 17% from 27% in August.
