A recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that Europe will face an autumn and winter with natural gas reserve levels lower than in over a decade, a condition that has the potential to extend tensions in energy markets.
The document, titled 'Global Gas Security Review 2026,' prepared by the IEA, highlights that structural transformations over the last decade have altered the global gas market, giving it greater liquidity, interconnection, and flexibility, although also making it more complex.
The expansion of activities in the spot market and the growth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts, which offer greater freedom regarding their destinations, have strengthened, according to the IEA, the connection between regional markets and the ability to withstand supply failures.
However, the report points out that the effective suspension of LNG flow through the Strait of Hormuz, motivated by the current Middle East conflict, resulted in a reduction of more than 60 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates between March and October this year.
This interruption raised gas prices in both Asia and Europe to the highest levels since the supply crisis of 2022-2023, as indicated by the IEA, an organization based in Paris.
The agency projects that global LNG supply will decrease by 3% in 2026, corresponding to almost 20 bcm. Simultaneously, global gas demand is expected to fall by approximately 1.5%, or about 65 bcm, due to reduced demand in the Middle East, lower industrial consumption in Europe, and the substitution of gas with coal in the electricity sector of various Asian countries.
In the European Union, storage deposits will enter winter with the lowest reserve levels since 2013, which accentuates the dependence on global LNG supply to meet seasonal peak demand.
The IEA warns that this situation could make the region particularly vulnerable if the next winter is harsher than expected or if technical problems or other supply disruptions occur.
Additionally, low stocks in Europe, combined with the limited storage capacity of LNG importing countries in Asia and South America, could intensify competition for available cargoes in the coming months and push spot market prices upward, especially during peak consumption periods.
The agency emphasizes that Europe may need to significantly increase its gas purchases during the summer of 2027 to replenish spot reserves for the following winter, which would prolong market tensions globally for much of the coming year.
Finally, the report stresses the need for Europe to strengthen international cooperation on supply security, even in the face of increasing global market flexibility.


