Despite rising living costs and increased fuel prices, the new automotive market in South Africa continued its upward trend in October 2026. During this month, 61,890 new vehicles were sold domestically, which is 10.4% more compared to the same period last year. This increase amounted to 5,839 units compared to the 56,051 vehicles sold in October 2025, according to data from the Automotive Business Council or naamsa.
Export figures also improved: 38,117 vehicles were shipped in October, which is 6.3% higher than the previous year. Dealership sales accounted for the largest share of local sales, totaling 48,234 units or 78% of the total volume. The remaining shares were distributed among vehicle rental industry sales (16.5%), government procurement (3.3%), and corporate fleets (2.2%).
Passenger car sales drive market growth
The passenger car segment became a key driver of growth in October, reaching a volume of 45,084 units sold. This represents an increase of 5,380 cars, or 13.6%, compared to the 39,704 passenger cars sold in October 2025. Within this segment, the rental industry accounted for 21.4% of all new passenger car sales.
The light commercial vehicle segment, which includes minivans and pickups, showed sales of 13,689 units, which is 2.2% more than the 13,398 units sold in the corresponding month last year. Sales of medium commercial vehicles slightly decreased by 0.9%, totaling 770 units compared to 777 in October 2025. However, the heavy truck and bus segment demonstrated stronger growth, increasing by 8.1% to 2,347 units compared to 2,172 units a year earlier.
Vehicle exports show signs of recovery
October marked an improvement in transport export figures after a period of declining volumes that began in February 2026. Exports grew by 21.1% compared to the previous month, reaching 38,117 units, corresponding to an annual growth of 6.3%. The recovery was supported by stronger results in specific vehicle categories, especially in the light and ultra-heavy commercial vehicle segments.
Nevertheless, the cumulative export volume for the first ten months of 2026 remained 8.3% lower than the same period in 2025, highlighting the challenges facing South Africa's export-oriented automotive industry.
New energy vehicle sales are gaining momentum
The New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market in South Africa continues to strengthen, with sales growth indicating an increasing diversity of powertrains among local motorists. Cumulative NEV sales for the first nine months of 2026 reached 22,389 units, exceeding the full-year total of 16,703 units in 2025 by 34%, with three months remaining in the year.
The shift towards alternative powertrains was particularly noticeable in September, when one of the nine passenger cars sold was an NEV. A significant change was also observed in the structure of NEV sales: charging vehicles, including Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), accounted for 50.5% of NEV sales to date in September. This included 8,082 PHEVs and 3,217 BEVs. The remaining 49.5% consisted of traditional Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), amounting to 11,090 units. This data suggests a gradual expansion of consumer adoption beyond conventional hybrids towards externally charged vehicles.
This transition is also beginning to spread beyond passenger cars, as early adoption of alternative powertrains is appearing in the light and medium commercial vehicle segments. Although volumes in these categories remain relatively small, this development indicates a growing interest in low-emission options for commercial transport and fleet operations. Long-term industry growth in this area will depend on factors such as supportive policy frameworks, expansion of charging infrastructure, and increased local manufacturing capacity.
Fuel prices and economic pressure remain a challenge
Despite positive sales results, the automotive industry continues to operate in a complex economic environment. In October, there was a sharp increase in fuel prices: petrol with an octane rating of 95 reached R30.25 per liter domestically starting October 7th, crossing the R30 mark for the first time. This is 12.4% higher compared to September, caused by rising international oil prices and supply disruptions.
The average price of Brent crude reached $101 per barrel during the October fuel price review period, and by the end of the month, it rose above $110. These increases have placed additional pressure on household budgets, as well as on the operating costs of transport and logistics companies. Some relief is expected due to a temporary R10 billion fuel levy assistance package announced in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in October.
Starting November 4th, the diesel levy was reduced by R3 per liter, and the petrol levy by R1.50 per liter. However, this measure does not fully offset the rise observed earlier in the year. Based on October prices, petrol prices will remain approximately 39% higher than January 2026 levels, and wholesale diesel prices will be 57%–61% higher.
International economic conditions also remain a factor influencing South Africa's automotive production and exports. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at their late-October meetings, balancing persistent inflation risks linked to energy prices against concerns about global economic growth. Domestically, the Consumer Price Index rose slightly to 4.5% year-on-year in September compared to 4.4% in August, although underlying inflationary pressure remained relatively moderate.
Automotive industry prospects
As the industry enters the fourth quarter of 2026, the latest sales data points to sustained resilience in the domestic new vehicle market. Growth in passenger cars, improvements in specific commercial transport segments, and stronger export figures provide encouraging signals for the industry. The rapid expansion of the NEV market also highlights changing consumer preferences and the growing importance of alternative powertrains in the South African automotive landscape.
However, maintaining this momentum will depend on consumers' ability to cope with the rising cost of living, as well as the industry's capacity to navigate fuel price volatility, global economic uncertainty, and the cost of vehicle ownership. For local manufacturers, priority tasks will remain strengthening export competitiveness while simultaneously expanding domestic production, investment, and employment as the automotive sector adapts to the changing global market.
