Although the cool and quiet hour after sunrise seems like an ideal time for walks in October, the medical institute AIIMS indicates that air pollution levels remain highest during early morning hours, approximately until 8:30 or 9 am.
Air quality in Delhi shows rapid variability. For instance, on Tuesday, October 20, at 4:00 pm, the Central Pollution Control Board recorded an Air Quality Index (AQI) of 179, classified as moderate. However, by the next day at 7 am, the air quality early warning system showed a value of 219, corresponding to poor quality, and the forecast for October 22 was 342.
The Invisible Lid Over the City
The explanation for this phenomenon lies in physical processes. Typically, temperature decreases with altitude, which promotes air mixing near the ground and the rise of pollutants. Researchers from the University of Reading, Ankit Bhandekar and Laura Wilcox, explain that temperature inversion disrupts this natural process, placing warmer air above colder air, similar to a lid on a pot.
As a result, pollutants remain close to the ground, and the mixing height—the level up to which they can disperse—decreases from approximately one kilometer in summer to a few hundred meters in winter. This 'lid' sinks lowest after nightfall. Sarat Guttikunda, founder of UrbanEmissions.Info, told Frontline that in November and December, the inversion height can drop below 50 meters at night and remain within 200–500 meters during the day. As the sun rises, this layer lifts, and the smog dissipates, which explains why the heaviest periods occur in the early hours.
The Bowl Holding the Smoke
Delhi's geography exacerbates this problem. The city is located on the Indo-Gangetic Plain, surrounded by the Himalayas to the north and the smaller Aravalli range to the south, forming a kind of natural bowl. The Himalayas prevent air movement northward, forcing pollution to travel across North India before it can exit into the Bay of Bengal. The monsoon season, which cleans the air from July to September, has already passed by October, and wind speed slows down.
Thus, minor changes in weather can quickly change the situation. Bhandekar and Wilcox note that on January 5, 2025, favorable winds allowed authorities to ease some restrictions; however, by January 15, calmer winds and lower temperatures forced the introduction of the strictest restrictions in the city. Meanwhile, the city had not received any new cars, factories, or construction sites in a week. The Centre for Science and Environment also observed something similar in the winter of 2023, when slow winds seemingly triggered most smog episodes over six years, despite field fires in Punjab and Haryana being almost comparable to 2022 levels.
Weather-Dependent Solutions
Researchers from Reading argue that if weather dictates when pollution occurs, policy must follow forecasts rather than chasing smog. They suggest tightening construction restrictions when inversions are predicted, even on clear days, and developing measures for the entire Indo-Gangetic Plain, as many of India's most polluted cities share similar conditions.
Delhi's Graded Response Action Plan already allows authorities to act proactively based on forecasts, including restrictions ranging from dust control to limits on construction and transport. Another lever of influence is upstream, as smoke from cattle dung burning in Punjab and Haryana, where farmers quickly clear fields for wheat sowing, increases the load every October and November. Some farmers avoid this practice by direct seeding wheat using Happy Seeders, spraying a biodegradable substance solution on the straw, or selling rice straw for conversion into fuel pellets.
What Can Be Done During This Season
Firstly, the cool early hours should be considered risky, as AIIMS advises staying indoors during peak hours and preferring indoor exercise over running or cycling outdoors. Secondly, one must check the AQI daily in the SAMEER app, recommended by AIIMS, and use an N95 mask if going outside. Thirdly, special attention should be paid to children, the elderly, and anyone suffering from heart or lung diseases, whom AIIMS notes are the most vulnerable. Fourthly, AIIMS advises reducing local emissions by skipping one car trip per week.
However, these recommendations are not equally accessible to everyone. Business Standard reports that an air purifier costing between 12,000 to 15,000 rupees is unaffordable for many informal workers, and that even indoors, the air can contain up to 70% of the outdoor PM2.5 level without airtight windows and purifiers. This is why forecast-based measures and cleaner fields are as important as personal habits. Delhi cannot change the bowl it is in or the chill that settles every night, but it can change what it emits into the air under this lid. Given the forecast of poor air quality for October 21–23, the next fresh, quiet dawn should be viewed more as a warning than a relief.