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Local elections on November 4 might give Gauteng residents reason to reconsider moving to Cape Town if political changes lead to tangible improvements in municipal governance.

According to Stats SA estimates, between 2021 and 2026, Gauteng attracted the largest influx of interprovincial migrants in the country—about 1.42 million people, compared to 500,093 in the Western Cape. Gauteng's population is approximately 16.3 million, accounting for 25.7% of South Africa's total population of 63.52 million, making it the most populous province in the country according to Statistics South Africa data.

However, poor municipal service delivery in Gauteng, including Johannesburg, and low quality of services have negatively affected the interest of property buyers and investors, according to Renier Kriek, managing director of the alternative housing finance company Sentinel Homes. The Centre for Development and Entrepreneurship warned that unpaid client bills in Johannesburg reached nearly 72 billion rand, describing a cycle where unreliable services reduce clients' willingness or ability to pay, weakening revenue available for servicing and investment.

Kriek notes: 'When basic services such as water, electricity, or waste removal cannot be guaranteed, it affects sentiment in the housing market and property prices.' Conversely, Cape Town, according to Kriek, has seen a significant influx of new residents due to higher quality service provision. However, the city's reluctance to quickly allocate land and fast-track project approvals has led to a housing shortage and sharp price increases.

The real estate firm Lightstone found that the Western Cape was the only province to record a net increase in sellers over buyers in the last five years. Nevertheless, its analysis also showed that in 2025, the Western Cape attracted fewer residents in the price range above R500,000 than in previous years. Gauteng appears to have lost the fewest residents since 2021—a shift that Lightstone partially attributes to rising prices and accessibility issues in Cape Town, reduced remote work opportunities, and relatively attractive property prices in Gauteng.

Kriek argues that the emerging affordability crisis may prompt more households to consider Gauteng or convince potential migrants not to leave at all. He emphasizes: 'Tangible improvements in Gauteng can change calculations for households considering a move. Cape Town cannot rely on Johannesburg remaining broken, nor can it expect good services to indefinitely compensate for exorbitant housing costs.'

According to Kriek, the South African Municipal Association and most leading analysts anticipate more coalition governments after the elections. He believes that winning the election, forming a governing majority, and managing the municipality are separate hurdles that must be overcome. Kriek warns that election winners cannot achieve change overnight, as public sentiment regarding lack of progress always precedes any improvements that require time to materialize, and this can influence the rise or fall of property prices and investments.

Kriek explains that when investing in property, one is effectively acquiring a stake in the municipality that manages everything outside their front door. He adds: 'Capital has a choice; poor municipal conditions increase costs and uncertainty. Investors and homebuyers react to this by closing deals at lower prices, demanding higher returns, or taking their money elsewhere. Strong renter demand can still make a deal worthwhile—but municipal risk is always factored into the price.'

A poorly managed municipality can make buying a home initially cheaper but more expensive in the long run. Households paying a lower purchase price may still be forced to independently arrange for water storage, backup power, and security on top of existing pressures on South African households. Furthermore, Kriek warns that falling property prices do not automatically mean more affordable housing.

He points out that the supply shortage is the primary driver of irrational and unsustainable price growth, making housing unaffordable for people in large metropolises, especially in Cape Town. In his view, 'the political failure is allowing this artificial shortage to persist.' Kriek adds that the serious deficiency in state infrastructure across the country, particularly public transport, exacerbates the problem. As urban nodes become denser, reliance on cars and private minivans becomes increasingly irrational.

Kriek concludes that South Africa has entered a phase where coalition politics has become the norm. This new era could provide a better balance in municipal governance and a more diverse pool of leaders to introduce new ideas. The most important evidence to watch is practical aspects: funded infrastructure works, more reliable services, faster project approvals, and actual completion of housing construction. He calls for: 'We need innovative policies and processes for rapid land allocation and project approval, improved service delivery, and accelerated affordable housing initiatives, and we must hold our new leaders accountable for their results, good or bad.' He concludes with: 'Gauteng's opportunity is to give people reasons to stay. Cape Town's task is to make room for those who want to come.'