Local government elections scheduled for November 4, 2026, may prompt Gauteng households to reconsider moving to Cape Town if political changes lead to tangible improvements in municipal management.
According to Stats SA estimates, between 2021 and 2026, Gauteng attracted the largest influx of inter-provincial migrants in the country—about 1.42 million people, compared to 500,093 in the Western Cape. Gauteng's population is approximately 16.3 million, accounting for 25.7% of South Africa's total population of 63.52 million, making it the most populous province in the country according to Statistics South Africa.
However, poor municipal governance in Gauteng, including Johannesburg, and low quality of service delivery have negatively affected the province's attractiveness to property buyers and investors, according to Renier Kriek, Managing Director of Sentinel Homes.
The Centre for Development and Entrepreneurship warned that unpaid client bills in Johannesburg have reached nearly 72 billion rand. He described a cycle where unreliable services undermine clients' willingness or ability to pay, weakening revenue available for maintenance and investment. Kriek notes: 'When basic services like water, electricity, or waste removal cannot be guaranteed, it affects housing market sentiment and property prices.'
Population Influx
Conversely, Cape Town, according to Kriek, has attracted a significant number of new residents due to higher quality service provision. However, the city's reluctance to quickly allocate land and fast-track project approvals has led to a housing shortage, causing prices to skyrocket. Real estate firm Lightstone found that the Western Cape was the only province to record a net increase in sellers over buyers in the last five years. Nevertheless, its analysis also showed that in 2025, the Western Cape attracted fewer residents in the price range above R500,000 than in previous years.
Gauteng appears to have lost the fewest residents since 2021. Lightstone attributed this shift partly to rising prices and accessibility issues in Cape Town, reduced opportunities for remote work, and relatively attractive property prices in Gauteng. Kriek argues that the emerging affordability crisis could prompt more households to consider Gauteng or convince potential migrants not to leave at all.
'Tangible improvements in Gauteng can change the calculations for households considering a move. Cape Town cannot rely on Johannesburg remaining broken, nor can it expect good services to indefinitely compensate for unaffordable housing,' said Kriek.
Sentiment and Investment Choice
According to Kriek, the South African Local Government Association and most reputable analysts anticipate more coalition governments after the elections. He emphasized that winning elections, forming a governing majority, and managing the municipality are separate hurdles that must be overcome.
Kriek warns that election winners cannot achieve change overnight. Public sentiment regarding lack of progress always precedes any improvements that require time to materialize and can influence the rise or fall of property and investment prices. Kriek believes that when a person invests in property, they are effectively acquiring a stake in the municipality that manages everything outside their front door.
'Capital has choices; poor municipal conditions increase costs and uncertainty. Investors and homebuyers react by closing deals at lower prices, demanding higher returns, or taking their money elsewhere. Strong renter demand can still make a deal worthwhile—but municipal risk is always factored into the price,' he noted.
Affordable Housing
Kriek explains that a poorly managed municipality might make buying a home initially cheaper, but more expensive in the long run. Households paying a lower purchase price may still be forced to independently secure water storage, backup power, and security on top of existing pressures on South African households.
He adds that where housing demand persists but development stalls, renters may also face rising rents, even if investors become less inclined to buy. Kriek cautions that falling property prices do not automatically mean more affordable housing. He states: 'The lack of housing supply is the primary cause of irrational and unsustainable price growth, which makes housing unaffordable for people in large metropolises, especially in Cape Town. The political failure is that we allow this artificial deficit to persist.'
A serious deficiency in state infrastructure provision in the country, particularly public transport, exacerbates the problem, Kriek adds. He points out that as urban nodes become denser, reliance on cars and private minivans becomes increasingly irrational.
After the Election
Kriek notes that South Africa has entered a phase where coalition politics has become the norm. This new era could provide a better balance in municipal governance and a more diverse pool of leaders to implement new ideas. The most important indicators to watch are practical aspects: funded infrastructure works, more reliable services, faster project approvals, and actual completion of housing construction.
'We need innovative policies and processes for rapid land allocation and project approval, improved service delivery, and accelerated affordable housing initiatives, and we must hold our new leaders accountable for their results, good or bad,' says Kriek. He concludes: 'Gauteng's opportunity is to give people reasons to stay. Cape Town's task is to make space for those who want to come.'