With the end of the electoral cycle, it is projected that the fundamental pillars of the economy will begin to determine investors' choices. After a sharp rise in the dollar and a significant fall on the Stock Exchange on Monday (26), the financial market presented a calmer day on Tuesday (27) during a Direct Treasury bond auction.
Despite the previous turbulence, the market showed signs of stability; the stock exchange fell by 0.5% after rising in the morning, reversing the 13% drop recorded on Monday (26). The Ibovespa index returned to the level of two months ago, and in the futures market, interest rates for 2032 decreased after intense volatility in the last three weeks.
It is expected that factors such as capital inflow and outflow will influence the exchange rate, corporate results will affect stocks, and fiscal policy will direct the trajectory of interest rates. There is a consensus among analysts that the financial market awaits concrete actions from the elected government to face the country's economic challenges.
Economist Andrea Ângelo emphasizes that the main priority must be controlling the increase in public debt. She states that the government needs to demonstrate agility by implementing tangible measures and positive signals to change the market's perception of investments and the economic policy of the next term.
The dollar reversed its movement from Monday (26), when it rose by more than 8%. On Tuesday (27), the US currency fell almost 1%, closing at R$ 5.35. The President of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, declared that the Central Bank will not intervene in the market to manipulate the exchange rate, stressing that it will only act in situations of dysfunction, as previously mentioned.
André Perfeito, an economist, sees no macroeconomic reasons to predict a dollar escalation. He explains that any exchange rate relationship is a flow game, and financial flow is attracted by the high yield of interest rates in Brazil, combined with a positive trade balance. According to him, the monetary authority should only monitor to prevent excessive panic, while the market tries to assess what the elected government will offer in terms of fiscal adjustments and how it will address certain issues.