South Africa is preparing for summer under conditions where El Niño increases the probability of higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, placing additional pressure on water systems. Communities are facing unreliable water supply, faulty infrastructure, and prolonged water outages.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that from October to December 2026, many regions in the country are expected to experience above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, while Gauteng is currently experiencing a heatwave.
These forecasts come against the backdrop of the government acknowledging deep systemic problems in water supply service provision. Concerns are rising about whether municipalities possess the necessary infrastructure, technical competence, and contingency plans to manage the increased strain on water resources.
Dr. Lester Goldman, CEO of the Water Institute of South Africa (WISA), stated that the approaching rainy season should serve as an impetus for an urgent assessment of the country's preparedness. Goldman emphasized that the value of climate forecasts depends on their effective utilization.
He noted that specialists are needed who can interpret changing conditions, assess local risks, and translate reliable information into decisions before a potential water crisis escalates into an emergency. Although El Niño does not guarantee drought in all areas, the forecast underscores the need for authorities to prepare for various scenarios, especially where water systems are already under stress.
Goldman added that climate resilience requires more than just access to information or having contingency plans. He believes that people with technical knowledge and professional judgment are needed to assess risks, work across different fields, and help decision-makers understand the practical implications of these risks.
The situation unfolds against the backdrop of a national water crisis that goes beyond mere water availability and affects the ability of municipalities to provide safe and stable water supply to households and businesses. The National Water Resources Action Plan identifies widespread deficiencies in municipal services, including deteriorating infrastructure, water losses, and inadequate maintenance.
According to the plan, 74% of water service providers received poor or critical ratings when assessing drinking and/or sewage systems, and the average non-commercial water consumption rate was 47%, significantly exceeding the target of 25%. Furthermore, the plan indicates 2,688 communities that lack formal drinking water infrastructure, or whose infrastructure is non-functional, or whose residents do not have access to basic services.
The Department of Water and Sanitation's 2023 'Blue Drop' assessment, referenced by WISA, showed that 277 out of 958 assessed water supply systems were in a critical operational state. These shortcomings call into question the effectiveness of the country's response in the event of intensified hotter and drier conditions putting pressure on water supply.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana also cited El Niño as a risk to the domestic economy in his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement for 2026, warning that it could affect production costs and output volumes. Godongwana stated that 'poorly maintained infrastructure, high water losses, and weak municipal capacity undermine service delivery,' noting that 'too many households and businesses still face unreliable water supply.'
He specified that the National Water Resources Action Plan aims to address both infrastructural and institutional challenges, with priorities including improving operational performance, strengthening governance and technical capacity, reducing water losses, and reforming water infrastructure financing.
The human consequences of water supply disruptions are already evident. The South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC), in collaboration with the Claude Leon Chair of Land Justice and Governance at the University of Witwatersrand, recently launched the 'Water Rights Tracker'—a five-year research project assessing progress in realizing the right to water across all 144 water service providers. The launch came amid reports that over 400 people fell ill with gastrointestinal disorders after coming into contact with contaminated water in the Bronkhorstspruit area. SAHRC Commissioner Dr. Henk Boshoff stated that this incident demonstrates the consequences of water quality failures, emphasizing that 'the water crisis affects lives and livelihoods. We cannot bury our heads in the sand, but we must address the water crisis openly.'
Professor Tracy-Lynn Field, Head of the Chair of Land Justice and Governance, stated that the tracker will help identify failures and strengthen accountability, asserting that 'access to sufficient water is not a privilege or a political promise. It is a constitutional right.' She added that 'the Water Rights Tracker provides a measure of whether this right is being realized, identifies where failures occur, and ensures accountability for those responsible for providing water services.'
For Goldman, the priority task is to translate warnings into practical action before conditions worsen. He concluded that 'South Africa cannot control the climate, but it can strengthen its capacity to respond. Investing in professional competence, evidence-based planning, and collaboration now will help us manage water risks more effectively in the coming season and in the years to follow.'