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Gold prices drop sharply before Diwali: Should one buy now or wait for further decline?
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Aaj Tak
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Gold prices drop sharply before Diwali: Should one buy now or wait for further decline?

A significant decrease in gold prices is being observed ahead of the Diwali festival. This presents buyers and investors with an important question: is the current moment suitable for purchasing gold and silver, or should they anticipate a further fall?

In the international market, gold prices fell by approximately 4% over the past week, marking the weakest weekly performance in the last four months. The decline is attributed to rising crude oil prices, new inflation concerns, and expectations of monetary policy tightening by America. As a result, the price of gold approached the $4,000 per ounce mark.

This decrease has also been reflected in the domestic market. Gold futures on MCX dropped by about 4% in a week, closing near the ₹1,42,024 mark for 10 grams, while the weekly low was ₹1,41,334. On Friday, futures fell by 0.92% or ₹1,315, ending trading around ₹1,41,994 for 10 grams.

In Chennai, retail prices for 24-karat gold decreased by 3.85% over the week, dropping from ₹1,48,190 for 10 grams to ₹1,42,480, representing a loss of ₹5,560. On Friday, the price of 24-karat gold fell by ₹190 per gram to ₹14,248, and the price of 22-karat jewelry gold dropped by ₹175 per gram to ₹13,060.

Tensions in Saudi Arabia following Houthi attacks led to a rise in crude oil prices to $116 per barrel. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates. High interest rates and treasury bond yields typically reduce the attractiveness of gold, which is what caused its value to fall.

According to Ponumudi R, CEO of the financial firm Enrich Money, registered with SEBI, the price of gold on COMEX closed near $4,008 at the end of the week after falling below $4,000 during the sell-off. The immediate support zone is in the range of $3,970–$4,000, and if it falls below this boundary, prices could drop to $3,900.

In the domestic market, Ponumudi identified the range of ₹1,40,000–₹1,41,000 as the immediate support zone for MCX gold. If the price breaks this boundary downwards, it may head towards ₹1,37,500–₹1,38,300.

Individuals planning festive purchases may consider buying the commodity in installments instead of spending the entire amount at once, as the probability of further decline remains. Investors are advised to invest or buy gold in small portions with every dip, while maintaining a long-term perspective.

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Silver and gold prices fall: Silver dropped by 200 thousand rupees from its peak, gold also decreased
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Silver and gold prices fall: Silver dropped by 200 thousand rupees from its peak, gold also decreased

The trend of falling prices for gold and silver continues. Prices for precious metals, which sharply dropped on Monday, continued to decline on Tuesday.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the price of silver fell by more than 3300 rupees per kilogram, after which silver became cheaper than its historical high by more than 200 thousand rupees. Gold also showed a decrease in value.

The latest quotes for 20-, 22-, and 24-carat gold are being considered on both the futures and domestic markets.

Regarding the futures price of silver, the contract expiring on December 4 closed at 2,22,877 rupees on Monday after daily trading. On Tuesday, after an initial rise, the price suddenly dropped to 2,21,783 rupees, representing a fall of 3319 rupees per kilogram.

Following this drop on MCX, silver became significantly cheaper than its peak level. In January of this year, the MCX Silver Price reached 4,20,048 rupees per kilogram; comparing this with the current price shows that silver is available for 2,00,490 rupees less.

Additionally, changes were observed in gold futures prices on MCX. Although the rate of decline for this yellow metal was not as sharp as that of silver, the gold contract expiring on December 4 closed at 1,49,543 rupees on the previous business day. On Tuesday, the price fell to 1,48,550 rupees, which is a decrease of 993 rupees.

In addition to the futures market, changes also occurred in the domestic market, where precious metals also became cheaper. 24-carat gold decreased from 1,48,061 rupees on Monday to 1,47,617 rupees per 10 grams. As for silver, its price dropped from 2,20,295 rupees per kilogram to 2,19,038 rupees.

According to data updated on the Indian Bullion Jewelers Association (IBJA.Com) website, current prices for various grades of gold can be viewed. However, it should be noted that although IBJA publishes uniform prices across the country, when purchasing jewelry in a store, 3% GST and manufacturing charges must be added, which can vary in different cities, increasing the final cost of the metal.

Significant drop in gold and silver prices observed on the global market
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Significant drop in gold and silver prices observed on the global market

At the beginning of the first trading day of the week, there was a sharp decline in the prices of gold and silver on the exchange. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the price of gold instantly dropped from over 1400 rupees per 10 grams. Simultaneously, the cost of one kilogram of silver fell below 2.25 lakh rupees, reaching a level significantly lower than its historical high.

Sharp drop in gold price

Looking at the precious yellow metal, it became clear that the price of gold on MCX fell to 1,50,056 rupees per 10 grams at the opening of trading on December 4. Meanwhile, at the end of the previous trading week, it closed at 1,51,499 rupees. According to calculations, 10 grams of 24-carat gold lost 1443 rupees in one day.

Significant decrease in silver cost

Analyzing the changes in silver futures prices after gold, it is visible that the price of silver with an expiry date of December 4 on MCX reached 2,24,326 rupees per kilogram on the first working day of the week. Previously, at the end of the last trading week, this precious metal was trading at a price of 2,25,755 rupees per kilogram. Thus, like gold, silver became more affordable for buyers, dropping by more than 1400 rupees per kilogram.

Silver is significantly cheaper than its historical high

Following this trend of weakening prices for precious metals, it is particularly noticeable that 1 kg of silver is selling significantly cheaper than its record level. At the end of January last month, the silver futures price exceeded the historical threshold of 4 lakh rupees for the first time, reaching 4,20,048 rupees. However, this was followed by a collapse in silver prices, and after the recent fall, it now stands 1,95,722 rupees lower than its peak value.

Dynamics of gold and silver prices in recent months

Over the last month and a half, there have been significant fluctuations in the prices of gold and silver. Analyzing this volatility, it can be noted that the price of 10 grams of gold on MCX, which was 1,55,484 rupees on August 31, decreased to 1,49,036 rupees by September 30. Nevertheless, thanks to the rise in October, the price traded at 1,50,056 rupees on Monday, despite the daily drop.

Silver's behavior is similar to gold's behavior

The trend in silver futures trading from August 31 to Monday, October 12, also resembled the movement of gold. On August 31, 1 kg of silver cost 2,40,121 rupees, but by September 30, its price fell by 16,415 rupees per 10 grams, reaching 2,23,706 rupees. However, on Monday, despite the sharp fall, the price traded at 2,24,326 rupees, which is higher than at the end of September.

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