A survey conducted by Datafolha, released this Friday (23rd), revealed that the percentage of respondents optimistic about the country's economic recovery in the next six months rose significantly, reaching 60%. This figure represents a considerable increase compared to the 36% recorded in June, with the survey being conducted between October 22nd and 22nd.
Regarding the future economic projection, the data shows that 60% expect an improvement, compared to 36% in June. Furthermore, 19% predict that the situation will remain unchanged, while only 12% anticipate a worsening, a smaller decline than the 26% observed in June. This positive expectation is the highest recorded since October 2022, when it reached 62%, and the forecast for deterioration is the lowest in the entire historical series started in 2019.
The prospect of economic improvement is noted across different political spectra. Among voters of Flávio Bolsonaro, 60% express this expectation, while among Lula's electorate, this index reaches 66%. There are also socioeconomic and regional variations: those with elementary education show greater expectation (67%) than those with higher education (51%). Regionally, the Center-West and North register 68%, the Northeast 66%, the Southeast 56%, and the South 55%.
On a personal level, 66% of respondents believe that their own economic condition will improve in the next six months, an advance from the 51% recorded in June. Personal projections indicate that 66% expect improvement, 25% maintenance of the status quo, and only 5% deterioration. The expectation of personal improvement is more pronounced among young people aged 16 to 24 (72%) than among those over 60 years old (56%), and is also higher among men (69%) and women (63%). Specifically, 70% of Lula's voters and 65% of Flávio Bolsonaro's voters project an improvement in their finances.
Analyzing the recent past, 43% of respondents felt that the country's economy deteriorated in the last six months, a slight decrease from the 45% in June. Regarding the general economic situation in recent months, 43% pointed to deterioration, 31% stability, 25% improvement, and 1% did not know. Concerning personal life, 38% reported that their situation remained the same, while 33% saw improvements and 29% registered deterioration.
How is the presidential race going
In relation to the presidential race, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47% of voting intentions, slightly behind Lula, who registers 46%. Including blank and null votes, the total reaches 5%, and undecided voters represent 2%. However, when considering only valid votes—excluding blank, null, and undecided—the race balances perfectly, with Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula both reaching 50%.
The survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. Datafolha collected data from 2,154 people aged 16 or older, during the period of October 20th to 22nd. The established margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the research confidence level is 95%. The official registration of this survey is BR-09709/2026.
