A new survey conducted by Datafolha, released this Friday (23rd), revealed that 27% of Brazilian voters consider China a reliable trade partner for Brazil. In comparison, the percentage of voters who express the same confidence regarding the United States is 22%.
Analyzing the evolution compared to July 2025, a shift in voter sentiment was observed. The proportion of those who did not trust China as a trade partner decreased from 29% to 24%, while the share of those who trust very much increased from 23% to 27%. Regarding the United States, distrust fell from 46% to 38%, and the very high confidence index rose from 19% to 22%.
Variation in assessment according to voting intention
The perception of trade relations also differs depending on presidential preference. Among voters for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), 31% state they do not trust China as a Brazilian trade partner, a significantly lower figure among supporters of Lula (PT), where this percentage is 16%. In the case of the United States, the pattern reverses: 61% of Lula's voters express distrust in the country, while only 14% of Flávio's voters intend to vote for him.
Detailed data shows that, regarding the relationship with the US, 22% can trust very much, 36% can trust little, 38% cannot trust, and 4% do not know. Regarding the relationship with China, 27% can trust very much, 44% can trust little, 24% cannot trust, and 6% do not know.
Status of the Presidential Race
Regarding the presidential race, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 47% of voting intentions, slightly ahead of Lula, who registers 46%. Whites and null votes total 5%, and undecided voters represent 2%. When considering only valid votes, excluding whites, nulls, and undecideds, both candidates have 50% each, which is the criterion used by the Electoral Justice to define the winner.
This survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo. Datafolha interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or older between October 20 and 22. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, plus or minus, and a confidence level established at 95%. The official registration of the survey is BR-09709/2026.