The international rating agency Fitch Ratings confirmed the long-term credit rating of issuer Navoiyazot JSC at BB- on October 16, 2026, while maintaining a positive outlook.
The company's rating is one step below the sovereign rating of Uzbekistan, which also has a positive outlook. The state is the sole ultimate shareholder of Navoiyazot, and Fitch considers state support for the company highly probable. The positive outlook aligns with the outlook for Uzbekistan's sovereign rating.
Fitch assesses Navoiyazot's standalone credit profile at b-. This rating is constrained by a relatively small asset base, limited revenue diversification, and the need for modernization investments. The agency also points to weak financial flexibility, leverage volatility, the evolving operating environment in Uzbekistan, and corporate governance shortcomings.
The state fully owns the company, controls its strategy and investment program, and regulates prices for certain products. Approximately 50% of Navoiyazot's debt is guaranteed by the state. The company receives financing from state banks or the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Navoiyazot is a key domestic producer of agricultural fertilizers in Uzbekistan and also produces sodium cyanide, which is essential for local mining enterprises.
The company is implementing an investment program to upgrade Soviet-era facilities, improve energy efficiency, and expand production capacity. Management has planned capital expenditures of approximately $230 million for the period 2026–2028. Projects include an ammonium nitrate production complex and several deep processing initiatives. These are expected to be financed through international loans without state guarantees, which will reduce the share of debt backed by state support. Fitch expects the main benefits from these projects to begin appearing in 2029.
A broader chemical investment program in the cluster around Navoiyazot is estimated at approximately $1 billion. Most of these projects will be implemented by foreign investors, with Navoiyazot participating as a product buyer, raw material supplier, or minority partner.
The company's profitability improved in 2025 due to rising global fertilizer prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international prices. Fitch forecasts EBITDA growth from $237 million in 2025 to approximately $290 million in 2026. In 2023–2024, EBITDA remained below $200 million. EBITDA margin is expected to reach about 38% in 2026 before declining to approximately 26% during 2027–2029 due to rising raw material costs and fertilizer price normalization.
The agency views opportunities to reduce leverage as limited as the investment cycle continues. Capital expenditures are estimated at approximately 580 billion UZS in 2026 and an average of 1.1 trillion UZS annually in 2027–2029. Fitch also assumes that the company will distribute 50% of its profits as dividends.
As of the end of June 2026, Navoiyazot held 196 billion UZS in cash and had no access to revolving credit lines. Fitch expects positive free cash flow in 2026, followed by negative free cash flow in 2027–2028. All current company obligations are owed to state banks or the state directly.
Fitch also notes the limited independence of Navoiyazot's board of directors and limited experience in publishing audited financial statements. The agency assigned an ESG rating of 4 for each factor, which negatively impacts the company's credit profile. The rating may be upgraded following an upgrade of Uzbekistan's sovereign rating, strengthening the company's ties with the state, or a sustained reduction in leverage below 4.5x EBITDA. If the outlook for Uzbekistan's sovereign rating is revised to Stable, the rating outlook for Navoiyazot will also be revised to Stable.