Elon Musk is studying the possibility of merging SpaceX and Tesla. Both organizations have established special committees to evaluate the deal, which could potentially become the largest corporate combination in history, valued at approximately $3.5 trillion.
SpaceX was founded by Musk in 2002 with the goal of reducing spaceflight costs and ultimately sending humans to Mars. Its reusable Falcon 9 rockets dominate the global launch market, the Dragon capsule delivers NASA astronauts to the International Space Station, and the Starlink satellite network provides internet worldwide.
The company has ceased to be solely a rocket manufacturer. In February, it acquired xAI, Musk's artificial intelligence startup known for its chatbot Grok, which took control of the social network X in 2025. SpaceX went public this year with a record offering and is now valued at approximately $2 trillion. A significant part of its recent growth is linked to renting out data center computing power to other AI companies.
Tesla was founded in 2003 and became a globally recognized electric vehicle manufacturer after Musk took over as CEO in 2008. Its valuation is around $1.5 trillion. The company's core automotive business faces pressure, and Musk increasingly presents Tesla as a company focused on robotaxis with autonomous driving capabilities and the humanoid robot Optimus.
Reasons for a possible merger
Musk told analysts on Tuesday that the merger would be a 'good idea.' Florian Frischmut from consulting firm Envorso noted that the combined entity could centrally control key AI components—chips, energy, and connectivity. Garrett Nelson of CFRA Research wrote in his note that the synergistic effect would likely be minor compared to the size of the deal, which he believes would mainly concern control.
Musk owns about 82 percent of SpaceX's voting shares but only about 20 percent in Tesla, where his actions have drawn the attention of investors and lawsuits.
How easily will this happen
Most analysts expect the deal to close. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives told AFP that, in his opinion, after Musk discusses the deal, the question is not whether it will happen, but when. He assessed the chances at 90 percent by early 2027 and suggested that Tesla would likely need to be valued above $500 per share to gain approval.
However, Musk warned that the merger is not guaranteed; it requires support from the majority of all Tesla shares, which he called a 'quite high barrier.' Nevertheless, Nelson noted that loyal retail investors own an estimated 25–27 percent of Tesla shares. Considering Musk's stake, only a small portion of institutional investors would be needed to support the deal.
Legal hurdles appear minimal, as both companies have moved their registration from Delaware to Texas, according to Ann Lipton, a law professor at the University of Colorado. In Texas, shareholders challenging the deal must first prove fraud or intentional misconduct, and companies can require that certain lawsuits be filed only by holders of 3 percent of shares. In SpaceX, this corresponds to approximately $60 billion in shares.
Lipton stated: 'I think it won't be difficult for Musk to push through the deal from a corporate standpoint. He just needs to manage to push something through.'
What are the obstacles
Lipton pointed out that more serious risks relate to SpaceX's importance to the US government and Tesla's operations in China. SpaceX heavily relies on contracts with NASA and the Pentagon, and Musk has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Republican campaigns. Analysts believe that if Democrats regain power in Washington, investigations into Musk's companies could resume, and SpaceX could eventually face difficulties securing government contracts. Musk cautioned Democrats against targeting him if they regain power.
He wrote on X, responding to a report on Democratic plans to investigate his activities if they win the midterms: 'Live by the sword, die by the sword.' Tesla's large manufacturing complex in China could also attract national security scrutiny. JPMorgan analysts proposed one option: isolating Tesla's Chinese business or transferring control of it to a consortium from China, similar to the agreement made for TikTok in the United States.