According to vessel tracking data, India's crude oil imports from West Asia increased in September, returning to pre-war figures, while purchases of Russian oil decreased amid increased competition from China.
Indian refineries were acquiring spot cargoes as Middle Eastern producers and traders ramped up supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which helped ease the supply deficit caused by the war with Iran.
Initially, as the world's third-largest oil importer, India was increasing its imports of Russian crude oil to compensate for reduced supplies from the Middle East at the beginning of the conflict.
Import Dynamics
In September, India's crude oil imports from the Middle East jumped to approximately 2.8 million barrels per day, the highest figure since February, compared to 32 percent in August, according to the data provided. Oil from the Persian Gulf accounted for about 54 percent of the total import volume.
Conversely, in September, Russian oil imports fell by approximately 14 percent compared to the previous month, reaching 1.8 million barrels per day. The share of Russian oil in India's purchases decreased from 46.6 percent to 33.5 percent.
Forecasts for Russian Purchases
According to a source in the Indian refining industry, purchases of Russian oil by Indian refiners are likely to remain moderate in the coming months. This is because the cost of Russian oil is now comparable to the prices of some Middle Eastern grades, particularly Iraqi oil.
The source noted that premiums on Russian oil have fallen to $1–2 per barrel relative to Brent, compared to more than $10 in recent months after markets received supplies from the Middle East. Refiners prefer to maximize purchases of discounted oil from the Middle East because the transit time is shorter, and some producers have lowered selling prices to offset rising freight costs. This source stated: 'We will buy from whoever offers us the best prices.'
Overall, India's imports grew by 20 percent in September compared to the previous month, reaching approximately 5.33 million barrels per day. Russia remains the largest oil supplier to India, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. Furthermore, South Asia's imports of Iraqi oil increased by approximately 830,000 barrels per day last month from 171,000 barrels per day in August.