In Tashkent, Uzbekistan, an international practical seminar was held on October 19–20 dedicated to assessing Uzbekistan's progress in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and studying international experience. The event took place at the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
As part of a session titled 'Long-term Scenarios for Developing Sustainable Agro-food Systems,' the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of a study concerning the decarbonization of Uzbekistan's Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors until 2070.
The results were presented by Abdurashid Bozorov, head of the CERR sector. The expert discussion was supported by representatives from the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).
Emissions and Reform Outcomes
According to CERR estimates, agriculture accounts for 17.5% of total greenhouse gas emissions in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, about two-thirds of emissions from the agricultural sector are linked to methane, with livestock farming being the main source.
The study also highlighted the outcomes of agricultural reforms conducted between 2017 and 2025. During this period, grain crop yields increased by 48%, raw cotton yields grew by 71%, and water withdrawal decreased by 22%. Additionally, the area covered by water-saving technologies reached 2.6 million hectares.
Nevertheless, significant potential remains for improving natural resource use efficiency. Approximately 37% of irrigation water is lost in canals, and nearly half of irrigated lands suffer from salinization.
Three Scenarios Until 2070
CERR experts developed three possible scenarios for this sector: continuation of current trends, implementation of existing government programs, and introduction of additional measures to increase productivity and reduce emissions.
Modeling showed substantial potential for emission reductions through increasing livestock productivity, more efficient fertilizer use, pasture restoration, and forest development. The study also analyzed the relationship between climate goals, food security, and agricultural efficiency.
Improving livestock productivity will allow for increased production volumes while simultaneously reducing the burden on pastures and natural resources. Following the completion of the study, CERR proposed a number of measures aimed at improving water resource management, reducing food loss, and enhancing land use efficiency.
The conclusions drawn by the CERR analytical group formed the basis for expert discussions regarding the long-term prospects of Uzbekistan's agro-food systems.