Weather expert predicts prolonged rains in UAE this week

According to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), the weather forecast for the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, October 14, is expected to range from good to partly cloudy. In the afternoon, there is a possibility of convective clouds forming and precipitation falling in some areas.

Clouds may appear over the eastern and western parts of the country, which could potentially lead to rain in certain locations. Residents may also expect humid conditions during the night and morning on Thursday in some coastal and inland areas, increasing the likelihood of fog or haze formation.

Winds are expected to be light to moderate, blowing from southeast to northeast at speeds of 10 to 25 km/h, and may occasionally intensify up to 40 km/h as cloud cover develops. These winds are also capable of raising dust in some zones. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea is expected to remain calm.

The highest temperatures in Dubai and Sharjah will reach 38°C, while Abu Dhabi is expected to see 39°C. On Wednesday, the minimum temperature will drop to 27°C in Sharjah, 29°C in Dubai, and 30°C in Abu Dhabi.

NCM warned about the possibility of periodic heavy downpours, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across the UAE this week. The meteorological department noted that the intensity of precipitation may vary, and some areas might face thunderstorms and stronger winds as clouds develop.

The UAE National Meteorology Center has issued a weather forecast indicating a possibility of precipitation in the coming days. According to the bulletin, clouds may be convective in the afternoon in the eastern and southern regions of the country. Although the formation of convective clouds does not guarantee rain, it indicates such a possibility.

High humidity is expected at night, and fog and haze are likely over some coastal and inland areas. The wind will be light to moderate, reaching 30 km/h, blowing from the southwest or northwest. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm.

October 12

Convective clouds are forecasted for October 12 in the inland areas closer to the evening. The weather will be clear or partly cloudy, with high humidity expected at night. The wind is expected to reach speeds of 45 km/h and will be fresh or strong at times, which may cause dust to rise.

On Tuesday, the weather will remain clear or partly cloudy, with a chance of rain in the eastern and western parts. High humidity is expected at night with a probability of fog and haze formation. The wind will blow from the southeast or northeast. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm.

Convective clouds are also expected on Wednesday, meaning a chance of rain. Overall, the weather will remain clear or partly cloudy. Light to moderate winds will reach speeds of up to 40 km/h, which may lead to dust lifting. The sea in the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea will be calm.

According to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society, temperatures across the UAE are running 3–4 degrees Celsius above the seasonal norm. Although autumn has started relatively dry, precipitation exceeding average levels is expected.

Speaking on Dubai Radio, Al Jarwan noted that residents continue to experience warmer than usual conditions, despite the general improvement in weather as the country transitions into cooler months.

He linked the current weather conditions to the El Niño phenomenon, a natural climatic event associated with warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and suggested that this phenomenon will intensify in October, November, and early December. Furthermore, rainfall above the average level is anticipated.

Al Jarwan reported that during the first week of October, daytime highs typically reach the mid-thirties Celsius, while nighttime lows fluctuate around 22–23°C. However, he mentioned that recent maximum temperatures in most parts of the country have ranged from 37°C to 43°C, citing reports from the National Center for Meteorology (NCM).

The persistent warmth aligns with the relatively dry autumn conditions he previously predicted. High humidity during this time of year is not unusual; it can exceed 80% in coastal areas and over 70% inland, contributing to morning fog formation.

Al Jarwan explained that fog is characteristic of October and November, occurring for more than ten days in each month. He emphasized that while fog and high humidity are natural phenomena, temperatures remain above average.

Explaining this phenomenon, Al Jarwan noted that temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean can influence weather patterns far beyond the ocean itself. He connected El Niño to increased rainfall in several regions worldwide, including the Arabian Peninsula, but stressed that its impact varies depending on the location.

A stronger episode may be accompanied by more pronounced weather extremes, ranging from drought in some regions to heavy rains or storms in others. He emphasized that El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle, not an environmental problem comparable to ozone depletion.

When Will Conditions Become More Moderate?

Al Jarwan added that as the UAE progresses through the autumn transition period, temperatures are expected to become more moderate. He referred to the local traditional calendar, stating that the country is in the period of 'Durr al-Sittin' and will approach 'Durr al-Sab'in' around mid-October—a time of milder weather before winter, which differs from the period of severe cold in the northern Arabian Peninsula.

Increased cooling may lead to strong winds and rain-bearing systems, although the seasonal wind event he mentioned has not yet occurred.

Previously, in an interview with Khaleej Times, NCM expert Dr. Ahmed Habib had predicted a hotter summer in the UAE compared to previous years. Habib linked the overall regional warming to El Niño but insisted that actual temperatures would depend on the weather systems affecting the country at any given time.

He also explained that the thermal minimum associated with the Indian monsoon system directed hot air towards the southern parts of the UAE, leading to daytime temperatures of 47–48°C at that time. Habib noted that northwesterly winds carrying dry desert air limited cloud formation and rainfall. He added that the main rainy season in the UAE usually occurs from mid-July to mid-August, when the shift of the tropical convergence zone northward allows moisture to reach the country and supports the development of rain clouds, especially in eastern areas and sometimes around Liwa.