According to an Airbus forecast, the global civil aviation services market will double over the next two decades, reaching a volume of 422 billion US dollars by 2045.
This forecast was presented on October 14 in Toulouse as part of Airbus's annual forecast for global services for the period 2026–2045, according to the company's press service. It is estimated that in 2026, the market is valued at 209 billion US dollars and serves a fleet of over 29,000 aircraft. The average annual growth rate is projected to be 3.8% until 2045.
Demand growth will correlate with the expansion of the global aircraft fleet. Airbus believes that the number of passenger aircraft with a capacity of at least 100 seats will increase from 23,310 in 2025 to 45,550 by 2045. To meet this demand, 42,060 new aircraft will be required: 22,240 to increase the fleet and another 19,820 to replace retired aircraft.
Passenger traffic is also expected to double over the same period, reaching 10 billion passengers. Fleet expansion will require a significant increase in aviation personnel. Over the next two decades, the industry will need 730,000 aviation technicians, 660,000 pilots, and 1.05 million crew members, totaling more than 2.44 million new specialists.
Airbus notes that the industry needs to make greater efforts to attract and train young talent. The aviation training market is projected to grow from 10 billion to 17 billion US dollars with an average annual growth rate of 3.1%, and the demand for full-scale simulator hours is expected to double.
The largest market segment will remain external maintenance, especially visits to workshops for engine and component repairs. Its value is projected to increase from 109 billion to 217 billion US dollars, showing an average annual growth of 3.7%. Airbus explains this expansion by the increase in repair work volume in workshops as the global fleet grows and aircraft age.
The second largest segment will be a new category covering operational support, including timely delivery of spare parts and engineering assistance. This market is expected to grow from 46 billion to 104 billion US dollars at an annual growth rate of 4.3%. Digital solutions and onboard connectivity are predicted to be the fastest-growing segment. The market is expected to almost triple, increasing from 10 billion to 27 billion US dollars with an average annual growth rate of 5.3%.
According to Airbus, by 2045, these solutions could help airlines reduce costs associated with flight delays and cancellations by up to 30%. Currently, such costs are estimated at 80 billion US dollars. Line maintenance, which includes everything from light checks to more extensive work, is projected to grow from 21 billion to 36 billion US dollars. The market for aircraft modifications and upgrades, including cabin refurbishment of older aircraft, is expected to increase from 13 billion to 21 billion US dollars.
The report also covers the secondary market for aviation components. More than 18,400 aircraft are expected to be retired by 2045, while the demand for serviceable used components could reach 60 billion US dollars. Airbus believes this market can help mitigate disruptions in the supply of new parts.