In light of forecasts suggesting that El Niño conditions could lead to 1200 deaths in the country, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) recommends that the public implement water collection and storage systems to manage water needs during periods of intense heat.
These climatic conditions typically cause reduced summer rainfall across South Africa, potentially increasing the risk of water shortages and placing additional strain on water resources.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon associated with abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation, altering temperature and precipitation patterns globally.
According to Hannelie Dubbel from SAWS, above-average temperatures with more frequent heatwaves and extreme heat events are expected across most of the country. She noted that, unlike El Niño, overall fewer extreme weather events regarding precipitation are anticipated, but the peak heat is expected in December and January.
Dubbel emphasized that seasonal forecasts do not allow for precise timing of these events during the summer, so she advises monitoring short-term weather forecasts weekly. She cited past seasons as examples: the summer of 1982/83 brought terrible drought conditions that severely impacted agriculture, whereas the summer of 1997/98 brought above-average rainfall in the latter half of the summer.
Although the current El Niño has the potential to surpass these events, Dubbel added that there is insufficient evidence to expect a more intense impact.
She advised the public to track short-term forecasts and alerts from SAWS and to be prepared to act upon receiving warnings.
As the threat of El Niño raises concerns about food production due to drought, local farmers are declaring their readiness to cope with the heat. A farmer from the North West, Seniren Naidu, urged agriculturalists to face reality early and not rely on hope. He advised against planting all the land if water is scarce, but instead intensively managing a smaller, well-mulched and irrigated plot to achieve a harvest rather than an enormous field that would completely perish.
Naidu also recommended protecting the soil cover, reducing herd size in advance to match available pasture capacity before animals lose condition, and conserving funds. He grows over 50 acres of mixed vegetables, focusing on local African and exotic crops, and has been working in this field for over 15 years.
To measure and protect soil moisture, Naidu uses practical methods rather than digital sensors. He employs the 'feel method' by digging 15–30 centimeters into the root zone to check whether the soil forms a ball or crumbles. To preserve this moisture, they strictly adhere to conservation agriculture principles, returning organic matter that keeps the soil moist.
He noted that this significantly reduces evaporation from the soil surface and maintains coolness in the root zones. To conserve water under the expected El Niño, Naidu has always used precision irrigation. Although this requires more manual labor, it justifies itself compared to excessive water use. Watering schedules were always set for early morning and late evening to combat evaporation and ensure plant uptake. Since the main crops are local African vegetables such as peas, amaranth, peanuts, and beans, most of them are already drought-resistant.
However, he stated that among leafy vegetables and herbs, there were no drought-resistant varieties. On some crop lines, they managed to switch to earlier maturity times—from six months to four months, which significantly helped reduce water consumption. Naidu warned that blindly relying on the first spring rain during an El Niño year is a trap, as it is often followed by a 'false start' leading to a long period of drought that destroys young seedlings. They wait until the accumulated rainfall penetrates at least 20–30 centimeters into the soil profile, allowing the soil to remain moist longer, promoting stronger plant growth.
The main defense and measure against El Niño for Naidu has been diversifying farming activities and maximizing water harvesting. They cleared drainage ditches and began pumping silt from dams. Furthermore, they strictly control weeds, as they are greedy competitors stealing scarce water and nutrients from main crops. When asked about plans for heat, Naidu reported that he strategically planned to focus on harvesting rather than planting from the peak of El Niño until its decline. Nevertheless, he admitted that the snowball effect will fall on the next season, and there is no easy way out of this reality in agriculture; the main thing is to plan the budget and maintain reserves for further work.
Farmer Donovan Gumede from Durban stated his readiness for the expected heatwaves. He recently built a new borehole and installed two 10,000-liter tanks to ensure a sufficient water supply for irrigation. They have also adopted a new watering method: cutting plastic bottles and placing them on plants, which facilitates soil moisture retention and helps save water. Gumede advised other farmers to develop water-saving irrigation methods, cautioning against using spray sprinklers as they waste water, and insisting on securing adequate water sources before expected heatwaves.
Visane Mavasa, a representative of the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), pointed out that historically, El Niño conditions are often associated with insufficient rainfall, drought, losses in agricultural production, and increased water stress.
DWS has implemented a risk assessment approach to early detection, evaluation, and management of potential impacts on water resources and services. Monitoring focuses on rainfall and catchment conditions, river flows and dam inflows, as well as national and system-specific dam storage levels.
The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) issued an El Niño Warning for disaster management stakeholders in July 2026, calling for strengthening drought preparedness and response measures, including reviewing contingency plans, resilience initiatives, risk reduction measures, and public awareness.
Mavasa reported that in August, DWS held meetings with key stakeholders, including the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), water boards, catchment management agencies, municipalities, and the agricultural sector, to strengthen preparedness and coordinate measures to mitigate potential drought impacts.
Discussions focused on the operation of water systems, water availability, distribution, and supply management interventions to support sustainable use of available water resources. The ENSO Reference Group, comprising climatologists, researchers, and institutional experts, including representatives from SAWS, ARC, universities, and CSIR, provides scientific assessment, monitoring, forecasting, and consultation on potential ENSO-related consequences. The ENSO Summit 2026/27 took place on September 26.
Mavasa stated that the department will continue to monitor water availability and manage water allocation according to approved system operating rules and prevailing hydrological conditions. However, municipal water distribution systems in the urban areas of Gauteng and eThekwini remain highly vulnerable to sharp demand spikes due to heatwaves. Progress in reducing per capita consumption of non-commercial water and physical losses or leaks in these municipalities is minimal, and investments in storage capacity and pumping remain inadequate.
In Gauteng and eThekwini, the average daily per capita water consumption is about 250 liters, which is higher than the global average of 173 liters. According to departmental data, in Gauteng, the share of non-commercial water is about 47 percent, and physical losses are 27 percent. In eThekwini, non-commercial water reaches approximately 56 percent, and physical losses are 40 percent.
Mavasa stressed the high risk that the expected hotter and drier conditions associated with El Niño could exacerbate seasonal demand peaks, thereby increasing the likelihood of prolonged water supply interruptions in Gauteng and eThekwini between October 2026 and March 2027. DWS sets abstraction limits for water boards and other authorized water users, determined at a level ensuring continuous and stable water supply under most drought conditions. These limits are gradually reduced when monitoring indicates significant water resource stress or the development of severe drought.
She advised municipalities to immediately implement water restrictions, as recommended by DWS and water boards, to avoid prolonged water supply disruptions this summer, and to ensure their effective enforcement. Municipalities must also effectively inform residents about the importance of reducing demand. The key question is whether municipalities can fix leaks in distribution systems, reduce average daily per capita water consumption, and promptly implement and enforce water use restrictions if necessary.
For the agricultural sector, preparing for the El Niño dry season means managing water as a limited resource from the outset, rather than waiting for scarcity to occur. Mavasa advises farmers to closely monitor dam levels, boreholes, soil moisture, and rainfall forecasts. Daily decisions should focus on efficient water use, prioritizing high-value crops, repairing leaks, and reducing unnecessary irrigation. She added that farmers should begin preparing now for the intensive implementation of water conservation and water demand management measures.
