Drivers in South Africa may expect another significant increase in fuel prices in November, as gasoline and diesel prices rose sharply in October. Pressure on domestic fuel costs is intensifying due to rising global oil prices and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
In October, the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel increased by more than 3 rand per liter, meaning drivers are paying approximately 9 rand per liter more than at the beginning of 2026.
According to Daily Investor, Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop warned of the possibility of further price increases, citing daily data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), which indicates persistent pressure on fuel costs.
Preliminary estimates published by The Citizen on October 7 suggested that gasoline prices could rise by approximately 4.60 rand per liter in November, and diesel fuel by 2.60 rand per liter. However, subsequent forecasts posted by The South African on October 9 indicated an increase of about 3.17 rand per liter for 93 octane gasoline and 3.35 rand per liter for 95 octane gasoline. It is important to note that these are preliminary forecasts, not confirmed price adjustments.
This increase followed the government's announcement of a sharp rise in fuel prices in October, which took effect on October 7. According to the South African government, the average price of Brent crude oil rose from 87.89 to 101 dollars per barrel during the review period. This rise was attributed to tensions between the US and Iran, uncertainty regarding oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, increased transportation costs, and lower reserves.
Reuters also reported that the October increase was linked to the impact of the Iranian war on global energy markets, with regulated gasoline prices rising by 12% and wholesale diesel prices by 10%.
South Africa's dependence on imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products makes domestic fuel prices vulnerable to fluctuations in the international market and changes in the rand exchange rate.
Bishop warned that higher fuel costs could complicate the country's inflation forecast ahead of the National Treasury's Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on October 21. More expensive fuel increases transport and distribution costs, which could potentially lead to higher prices for food and other goods and services.
Rising costs also pose a challenge for the South African Reserve Bank, which aims to bring inflation closer to its target of 3%. Bishop predicts an increase in inflationary pressure, possibly up to 5%, and cautioned that interest rates could rise even further if inflation remains high.
For households already facing high living expenses, another fuel price hike will put additional pressure on disposable income, while businesses may face increased operating costs.
Although November forecasts remain uncertain, drivers will closely monitor global oil prices, the rand-to-dollar exchange rate, and subsequent CEF data for information on the final adjustment.