The International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted its global growth forecast for 2026 on Tuesday, raising it to 3.1%. This increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to the July forecast is attributed to the economy stimulated by investments in artificial intelligence (AI) compensating for the damage caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
In its latest report, 'World Economic Outlook,' titled 'Resilience Under Pressure, Urgent Elections,' the IMF initially projected a slowdown in global growth from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, followed by a recovery to 3.4% in 2027. The 2027 forecast remained unchanged from the July projection but was 0.2 percentage points higher than the April forecast.
The Fund noted that growth is becoming more concentrated: only 32 economies now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 economies in April. Approximately 47% of economies faced downward revisions to their forecasts.
The IMF characterized the world economy not merely as slowing or accelerating, but as one where growth is being redistributed depending on each country's vulnerability to shocks caused by the energy sector war and AI-related demand.
The strongest performers are countries that combine limited vulnerability to energy issues with deep ties to the AI hardware supply chain. Conversely, energy-importing countries with minimal linkage to the technology cycle, including many low-income countries, face the most difficult combination: rising import bills, currency depreciation, and declining real incomes.
The IMF's baseline scenario assumes the resumption of operations in the Strait of Hormuz in March 2027, with conditions generally returning to pre-war levels by October 2027. Before the war, approximately a quarter of global seaborne oil shipments passed through this strait.
The Fund calculated that the closure of the strait would have reduced global growth by 0.9 percentage points this year if compensating supply responses had not been factored in. The redirection of production in the Gulf, increased output in other regions, lower inventories, and reduced reliance of the global economy on oil mitigated the net impact to about 0.3 percentage points.
The 2026 forecasts for Saudi Arabia were lowered by 5 percentage points compared to July, reaching a contraction of 3.3%. Meanwhile, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, as commodity producers most affected by disruptions in energy extraction and transport, are expected to enter double-digit contractions this year.
The IMF warned that reserves are depleting to stress levels that could trigger sharp price spikes. The average oil price is projected to be $95.74 per barrel in 2026, approximately 41% higher than in 2025, and $87.39 in 2027.
Global inflation is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before falling to 4.1% in 2027. Compared to April estimates, the fund raised its inflation forecasts by 0.3 percentage points for 2026 and 0.4 percentage points for 2027.
Core inflation is expected to return to the 2% mark only by the end of 2027 in Japan and the UK, and by mid-2028 in the Eurozone and the United States.
Among major economies, growth in the US is forecast at 2.3% for both 2026 and 2027, supported by consumption, fiscal policy, and technology investment. The Eurozone, in turn, is projected to grow by 1.1% this year and 1.2% next year, reflecting continued pressure from high energy prices and weak consumer confidence.
India's growth is projected to reach 7.0% in both years. For 2026, Japan's growth is forecast at 0.7%, and the UK's at 1.3%.
