Although the expected rise in gasoline prices in November will not reach the level of 4.00 ZAR, this is not positive news. Earlier forecasts suggested a possible fuel price increase of more than 4.50 ZAR in November, but recent data indicates a much less severe picture for the coming month.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, significantly smaller revenue shortfalls are observed across all fuel types. Calculations suggest that residents of South Africa should expect a gasoline price increase of approximately 1.80 ZAR per liter, while diesel fuel is forecast to rise by about 1.00 ZAR.
These forecasts are based on the assumption that the rand exchange rate and international oil prices will remain at their current levels until the end of October. Meanwhile, recent daily revenue shortfalls from gasoline sales have fluctuated between 55 cents and 1.50 ZAR, gradually reducing the accumulated monthly average of 2.73 ZAR.
Nevertheless, the projected fuel price increase will lead to new record highs for gasoline and diesel fuel, putting additional pressure on consumers who are already facing financial difficulties.
The price of 95 octane unleaded gasoline is currently 29.38 ZAR on the coast and 30.25 ZAR in Gauteng after an increase of 3.33 ZAR at the beginning of the month. The price of diesel fuel has increased by 2.84–3.24 ZAR, bringing projected retail prices, which vary depending on the point of sale, to a range of 33 to 35 ZAR.
The fuel price crisis has prompted widespread calls to the government to reinstate the fuel tax exemption that was temporarily introduced earlier this year. Organizations such as the ANC, ATM, and Fedusa are strongly urging the Ministry of Finance to take action. However, economists warn that there are compelling reasons why the government may be reluctant to repeat the previous intervention.
Nonetheless, some relief may be possible in the future. President Cyril Ramaphosa stated last week that the government is considering ways to reduce the burden of fuel prices, although he emphasized the need to maintain fiscal prudence.
Meanwhile, Transport Minister Barbara Chisí ruled out increasing the Road Accident Fund (RAF) fuel levy during her tenure, despite reports that the fund wanted to raise it from 2.25 to 3 ZAR per liter. Speaking to eNCA, Chisí noted that drivers are already under significant financial pressure and insisted that attention should be paid to resolving long-standing issues with mismanagement in the RAF.