According to a report published today by the European Commission, the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict could halt the creation of 440,000 jobs in the European Union in 2026. The most affected sectors are transport, agriculture, and construction.
The European executive body warns that employment growth in the EU in 2026 is likely to be only 0.3%, compared to a forecast of 0.5% before the conflict began, which equates to a loss of about 440,000 jobs.
In its report on European employment prospects and social issues, the European Commission indicates that under a more adverse scenario of war, triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran, employment growth in 2026 would approach zero, meaning a loss of nearly 900,000 jobs.
According to Brussels, among these approximately 440,000 lost jobs in 2026, the manufacturing industry, transport, construction, and trade will account for 241 thousand. These sectors are most sensitive to energy intensity, and in agriculture, the problem is exacerbated by rising fertilizer prices.
Under a more negative scenario, this figure will increase to 494 thousand, reaching a total of 900,000 jobs lost when combined with other losses.
Brussels notes that the Middle East conflict has triggered a significant energy shock in the EU. Disruptions to global oil and gas supply infrastructures have led to higher energy prices and increased market uncertainty, forcing companies to face rising production costs.
Due to rising operating costs, the institution forecasts that businesses will hire fewer workers and may reduce staff in some cases, against the backdrop of existing weakening in labor markets.
Furthermore, a noticeable slowdown in real wage growth is expected, although wages will continue to rise. Real wages in the EU are projected to grow by 0.4% in 2026, lower than the forecasted 1.2% before the Middle East conflict; this is because wages cannot immediately compensate for price increases.
In 2027, growth is expected at 1.1%. In the worst-case scenario, real wages will only grow by 0.2% in 2026 and almost stagnate in 2027. Nevertheless, a decrease in real wages is not expected, unlike in 2022 when an energy crisis occurred following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The report mentions Portugal as a country where the national minimum wage constitutes a higher share of the median gross wage, according to 2025 data excluding micro-enterprises. The European Commission forecasts a labor productivity growth of 3.3% for Portugal in 2026, the highest figure among the analyzed countries (after Lithuania at 3.1% and Bulgaria at 2.2%).
The document also highlights the trend in real wages in Portugal, which are projected to exceed 2019 levels by 18.1%, representing one of the highest increases in the EU over the period under review.
In this study, the European Commission analyzes the quality of employment through aspects of remuneration, job security, and working hours, asserting that improving working conditions can contribute to increasing the productivity and competitiveness of the European economy.