Fitch Ratings has upgraded the long-term foreign currency issuer rating for the Uzbek company Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NGMK or NMMC) to BB with a positive outlook. The rating for the company's senior unsecured debt was also confirmed at BB, with a recovery rating set at RR4.
Although NMMC's standalone credit profile is rated bb+, the final rating is constrained by Uzbekistan's sovereign rating, as the state is the sole shareholder of the company. Uzbekistan's sovereign rating is BB with a positive outlook.
Fitch highlighted NMMC's scale, noting that in 2025, the company produced 3.15 million ounces of gold, placing it among the world's largest gold producers. The company's strengths include low mining costs, high profitability, long mine life, and moderate debt levels.
Nevertheless, the rating is under pressure due to the concentration of all production assets in Uzbekistan, a complex operating environment, and limited liquidity. According to Fitch, NMMC's close ties to the state affect its credit profile, as authorities participate in strategic management of the company and influence its cash flows through taxes and dividends.
The state owns NMMC through the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Fitch assesses both the government's responsibility for supporting the company and its willingness to provide such support as high. NMMC is strategically important to the economy of Uzbekistan, providing over 80% of the country's gold production and being one of the largest taxpayers and leading employers.
In 2025, NMMC mined 3.15 million ounces of gold. The company operates 12 major mining sites, seven plants, and two heap leaching facilities. The Muruntau deposit remains the main production asset, accounting for about 70% of the company's gold output and over 80% of its reserves. Fitch estimates that the existing Muruntau reserves are sufficient for approximately 25 years. The reserve assessment for other deposits according to the JORC Code is nearing completion.
NMMC plans to increase gold production to 4.02 million ounces by 2030, which is about 30% higher than the 2025 level. The development program includes expanding Muruntau, building an additional hydrometallurgical plant for processing low-grade ore, developing two new silver deposits, and creating a facility for processing silver-bearing ore.
Fitch forecasts that the company's annual capital expenditures will average around $900 million between 2026 and 2029. The agency notes that management has a successful track record of completing expansion projects ahead of schedule without significant budget overruns. The company is also developing a strategy valid until 2035.
According to Wood Mackenzie, NMMC ranks among the bottom quarter in terms of cost among gold producers based on total sustaining costs. The company's cost advantages stem from low operating expenses, a high proportion of expenses denominated in local currency, and economies of scale, especially at Muruntau.
All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for gold were $1,358 per ounce in 2025 and rose to $1,647 in the first half of 2026. Fitch attributes this increase to higher royalties, rising costs for consumables and electricity, increased labor costs, and higher ore extraction volumes. The agency expects further cost increases, partly due to a slight decrease in gold content in mined ore, but anticipates partial compensation through efficiency gains.
Despite this, Fitch forecasts that NMMC's average net debt to EBITDA and total debt to EBITDA ratios will remain below 1.0x from 2026 to 2030. Under the agency's base case, the company's average EBITDA margin is expected to exceed 53% in 2026–2029. This forecast also assumes annual capital expenditures of $900 million, dividend payments equivalent to 95–100% of net profit, and average annual social expenses of about $100 million in 2026–2029.
During 2024–2025, NMMC issued three tranches of Eurobonds totaling $500 million each, with maturities between 2028 and 2031. The funds were used to prepay more expensive loans, diversify the debt portfolio, improve the repayment profile, and reduce debt servicing costs.
As of June 2026, the company held $37 million in unencumbered cash. Additionally, it had access to $140 million under a revolving credit facility of $400 million. Short-term debt, excluding amounts drawn under this facility, amounted to $101 million. The revolving credit facility matures in 2028.
Fitch expects free cash flow before dividends to remain stable despite the substantial investment program. NMMC management aims to maintain cash reserves at $50–70 million and is working to formalize its financial policy, including liquidity management rules.
The positive outlook reflects the prospect of an improvement in Uzbekistan's sovereign rating. Fitch considers a downgrade of NMMC unlikely, although a downgrade of the country's sovereign rating would lead to corresponding actions regarding the company's rating. The company's standalone credit profile could come under pressure if the total debt to EBITDA ratio remains above 2.0x or if the company records persistently negative free cash flow due to dividends, significant capital expenditures, or mergers and acquisitions. NMMC's rating could be upgraded if Uzbekistan's sovereign rating is increased.