There are concerns that the lack of rain in India will negatively affect the sugarcane harvest and overall sugar production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for sugar production in India for the 2026-27 season, which began in October 2026. The forecast was lowered from 33.6 million metric tons to 29.5 million metric tons, indicating an expected decrease in production of approximately 41 lakh metric tons. The primary reason cited for this reduction is the severe rainfall deficit in 2026.
According to USDA data, the reduced amount of precipitation may lead to lower sugar content in sugarcane, as this sugar is used in factories for sugar production. Furthermore, a decrease in sugarcane yield is predicted. Water scarcity may also impact the operation of sugar mills. The report indicates that at the beginning of 2027, the process of extracting cane may become difficult due to dry conditions.
The USDA has also lowered its forecast for sugarcane yield in India. In the previous season, the country produced about 45.5 million metric tons of cane. For the 2026-27 season, this figure is projected to drop to 43.4 million metric tons, representing a yield reduction of approximately 2.1 million metric tons. The lack of rainfall prevents sugarcane from receiving sufficient moisture, which affects its growth and sugar content. Consequently, sugar mills may receive less cane for processing, which in turn threatens a decline in total sugar output.
According to the USDA, water scarcity could pose a serious problem for sugar mills. If drought-like conditions arise at the beginning of 2027, it could complicate the cane extraction process. Sugar production requires a significant amount of water, and its shortage can disrupt factory operations. Moreover, if the cane harvest in the fields is low, mills will also struggle to obtain the necessary raw material. Thus, both the cane shortage and the water deficit could affect sugar production.
El Niño is a seasonal phenomenon related to temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean that can influence weather in many parts of the world. However, the USDA's forecast for the decline in sugar production in India is attributed to the severe rainfall deficit in 2026 and its impact on the sugarcane harvest. The actual sugar production in the 2026-27 season will depend on the cane yield, its sugar content, and water availability. Currently, the USDA forecasts sugar production in India for this season at 29.5 million metric tons.