According to a joint report published on Wednesday by Google and Redseer Strategy Consultants, the express commerce market in India shows significant growth potential. It is projected that the volume of this market will increase from $13 billion this year to $90 billion by 2031.
The report, titled 'Think Quick Commerce: Unlocking the $90B Opportunity,' suggests that over the next five years, the number of monthly active express commerce buyers in the country will reach 100 million. This growth is already visible in real-time: sales in the express commerce sector are expected to rise by 110% compared to the previous year during the current festive season, accounting for about 18% of all online purchases during the holidays in India.
Industry analysts attribute this dynamic to two main changes: urban dwellers are increasingly using apps to receive their entire monthly grocery stock in 10 minutes, and buyers from smaller towns are trying these platforms for the first time.
Large cities will drive approximately 60% of the market's growth by 2031. Currently, express commerce accounts for about 6% of total retail turnover in Indian megacities, but researchers expect this share to rise to 20–23%. Over the same period, the base of urban users will almost double—from 28 million to 50 million.
Residents of megacities are increasingly placing orders to replenish their entire pantry, not just last-minute groceries or forgotten ingredients. Platforms are adapting to this shift by offering larger pack sizes, better value for bulk, and automatic reorder reminders.
Higher-value items such as cosmetics, home goods, and electronics sold through express delivery are also gaining popularity. Sales of these items are projected to grow from $3 billion in fiscal year 2026 to a range of $21–$27 billion by 2031.
Beyond major urban centers, apps are targeting a market of around 200 million online shoppers in more than 300 smaller towns. The monthly number of active users in these regions is expected to increase four to fivefold, reaching 60 million by 2031.
Despite high awareness—over 95% of surveyed residents in small towns who do not use the service know what express commerce is—encouraging them to place regular orders remains a challenge. High delivery fees, small basket sizes, and doubts about product freshness often hinder this.
The report notes that buyers outside major hubs typically prioritize value over sheer speed. To realize the forecasts, platforms are testing flexible delivery windows to reduce order fulfillment costs, incorporating local regional brands alongside national ones, and offering trial sizes at lower prices.
Kushal Bhatnagar, Partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants, noted: 'Express commerce was initially built on a simple idea: delivering a known product to the customer in minutes. The path to a $90 billion market is becoming more complex because most retail spending does not operate this way. Monthly grocery purchases depend on pack size and price, whereas buying a phone or cosmetics requires research and confidence. Platforms need to understand exactly where speed truly drives sales and where other factors play a bigger role.'
Karan Duggal, Head of Industry for Express Commerce and Food Tech at Google India, added: 'Express commerce in India is no longer a one-size-fits-all solution. Purchasing habits vary greatly depending on whether you are in a metropolis or a small town, or whether you are buying daily milk versus expensive electronics. As the industry approaches 100 million monthly buyers, the platforms that can adapt their strategy to these subtle differences will win.'