Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prepares to announce repo rate decision, which will affect loan monthly payments.
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Aaj Tak
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Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prepares to announce repo rate decision, which will affect loan monthly payments.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to release its important decision today. The announcement, made at the Monetary Policy Committee (RBI MPC Meeting), will be delivered at 10 am by RBI Governor Sanjeev Malhotra. The primary focus is on the announcement regarding the repo rate, as this will directly impact the Equated Monthly Installments (EMI) for home or auto loans.

Many experts predict an increase in the repo rate. If this occurs, the burden of monthly loan payments will rise.

According to reports concerning the RBI MPC meeting, several experts suggest that the Reserve Bank might raise the repo rate by 0.25%, or 25 basis points. If the RBI implements this anticipated repo rate hike, considering rising crude oil prices and inflationary risks, the repo rate would increase from 5.25% to 5.50%. This will directly affect both the EMI for home loans and the yield on Fixed Deposits (FD).

Previously, approximately 3.5 years ago, in 2023, the repo rate was increased by 25 basis points. The current meeting is the fourth MPC meeting of the Reserve Bank in 2026; three previous meetings kept the repo rate unchanged. In the April, June, and August meetings, the repo rate remained at 5.25%.

It is important to understand why experts expect a 25 basis point increase in the repo rate. The RBI MPC meeting takes place during a period when crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel due to tensions in West Asia, which heightens inflationary risks.

The repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI provides short-term loans to banks. Banks determine the interest rates they offer to their customers based on this rate. The RBI MPC holds a three-day meeting every two months. Changes in the repo rate directly affect borrowers. The reason is that if the repo rate rises, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow from the RBI. Consequently, banks may pass this cost onto customers or make loans more expensive. Conversely, when the repo rate decreases, loans become cheaper, and the EMI burden lessens.

Experts estimate that if the RBI announces a 25 basis point increase in the repo rate on Wednesday, it will impose a certain financial strain on borrowers. The calculation is straightforward. Suppose a person took out a home loan of 50 lakh rupees over 25 years at an interest rate of 7.50%, and their monthly payment is about 36,950 rupees. If the repo rate potentially increases to 7.75% afterward, the monthly payment will rise to 37,766 rupees, representing an additional expense of 817 rupees monthly. It should be noted that a repo rate hike does not cause an immediate change in EMI; it takes effect on the loan's 'reset' date with the bank.

While a repo rate increase may increase financial pressure on customers taking home or auto loans, it could benefit those placing funds in fixed deposits. If the repo rate rises, banks often increase FD interest rates by 0.25%, providing higher returns for new depositors. However, there remains uncertainty as to whether the repo rate will increase or if the Central Bank will decide to keep it unchanged. The announcement is expected at 10 am.

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RBI MPC raises repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%: A review of the last five hikes
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business-standard.com

RBI MPC raises repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%: A review of the last five hikes

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (RBI MPC) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Wednesday, bringing it to 5.5 percent. This increase reversed previous MPC decisions where the rate remained unchanged during past policy reviews.

The last repo rate hike by the RBI occurred in February 2023, when the MPC increased it by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent. Below is a review of the last five repo rate hikes by the RBI leading up to the latest adjustment.

February 8, 2023: RBI raises repo rate to 6.5%

On February 8, 2023, the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points, setting it at 6.5 percent. This was the sixth consecutive rate hike since May 2022, resulting in a total increase of 250 basis points within the tightening cycle.

The RBI indicated that inflation remains a significant risk to the forecast. Although domestic economic activity was expected to remain resilient, the central bank emphasized the importance of vigilance regarding inflation and ensuring it stays within the acceptable range with a gradual move towards the 4 percent target.

The MPC reported that the rate hikes since May 2022 are still having an impact on the economy. Nevertheless, it was acknowledged that further 'calibrated monetary policy actions' are necessary to anchor inflation expectations and overcome core inflation stickiness.

The February hike was not unanimous: four out of six MPC members voted for the 25 basis point increase, while Asim Goyal and Jayant R Varma voted against it.

The RBI maintained its focus on withdrawing monetary stimulus to ensure inflation aligns with the target level while supporting growth.

December 7, 2022: RBI slows down rate hike pace

In December 2022, the RBI raised the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 percent, which was a slowdown compared to the 50 basis point hikes in the three preceding meetings.

The RBI noted that the global economy faces increased uncertainty, slowing growth, geopolitical tensions, and tightening financial conditions, negatively impacting prospects. Meanwhile, domestic economic activity remained resilient.

The central bank stated that inflation had decreased from its peak but still exceeded the upper tolerance threshold of 6 percent. It also pointed to persistent core inflation and the risk of secondary effects.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the MPC deems further calibrated monetary action necessary to anchor inflation expectations, 'overcome core inflation stickiness,' and curb secondary effects.

The MPC continued to focus on withdrawing monetary stimulus so that inflation could return to the target level while simultaneously supporting growth.

September 30, 2022: RBI raises repo rate to 5.9%

On September 30, 2022, the RBI raised the repo rate by another 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.9 percent. This followed the central bank's previous hikes of 90 basis points in May and June, and another 50 basis points in August.

The RBI's concern at the time was that inflationary pressures were proving more persistent than expected. The central bank was also dealing with sharply tightening global financial conditions, a strong US dollar, and capital outflows from emerging markets.

The RBI reported that domestic economic activity showed resilience, but inflation remained the main issue. It insisted that monetary policy must continue moving towards withdrawal of stimulus to bring inflation back into the target range while supporting growth.

August 5, 2022: RBI notes inflation remains uncomfortably high

On August 5, 2022, the MPC raised the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.4 percent. The focus on withdrawing stimulus to ensure inflation returns to the target level while supporting growth was also maintained.

The RBI stated that consumer inflation had decreased compared to the April peak but remained 'uncomfortably high' and above the upper target threshold. It was noted that inflationary pressures had become widespread, and core inflation remained elevated.

The central bank warned that inflation was expected to remain above the upper tolerance level during the first three quarters of 2022-23. It added that persistently high inflation could destabilize inflation expectations and trigger secondary effects.

Against this backdrop, the MPC stated that further calibrated withdrawal of monetary stimulus is required to curb inflationary pressures, bring headline inflation back into the acceptable range, and anchor inflation expectations. Simultaneously, the RBI noted the resilience of the domestic economy, improved urban demand, and signs of rural demand recovery.

June 8, 2022: RBI accelerates tightening pace

The June 2022 meeting featured another 50 basis point hike, bringing the repo rate to 4.9 percent. The MPC unanimously decided to focus on withdrawing stimulus to keep inflation within the target range while supporting growth.

The RBI pointed out that the war between Russia and Ukraine and associated sanctions supported high global commodity prices, exerting constant pressure on consumer inflation. It also warned that faster monetary tightening by major developed economies was creating volatility in global financial markets, pressuring emerging market currencies and increasing capital outflows.

The central bank noted that 'positive risks to inflation' identified in its early policies materialized earlier and with greater intensity than anticipated. It was observed that inflationary pressures had become widespread, and signs appeared that rising input costs were being passed on to consumers.

The RBI projected that inflation would remain above the upper tolerance limit during the first three quarters of 2022-23. Consequently, the MPC concluded that further monetary policy action was necessary to anchor inflation expectations and prevent secondary effects, raising the repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 percent.

What decision did the last five MPC meetings make?

The last five MPC meetings demonstrate RBI's transition from cutting rates in December 2025 to a prolonged pause in 2026. In December 2025, the MPC cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent and maintained a neutral stance. The RBI also lowered its inflation forecast for fiscal year 26 to 2 percent and raised the growth forecast to 7.3 percent.

From February 2026 to August 2026, the MPC held the repo rate steady at 5.25 percent, maintaining a neutral stance.

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