According to a report from the Swedish group Betsson, the list of contenders for the Nobel Prize in Literature is headed by multiple-time nominee Qian Xue, followed by Canadian Anne Carson and Australian Gerald Murnane. The top five are completed by Argentinian César Ayra and Mexican Cristina Rivera Garza.
Other probability rankings, such as those from the well-known British Ladbrokes, which Lusa reviewed today at 3:00 PM, also placed Xue first, but tied (10/1) with Carson. Next were Japanese Haruki Murakami and Murnane, while North American Thomas Pynchon was on equal footing.
Ladbrokes also includes Lydia Jorge with odds of 20/1, alongside Garza, Spaniard Enrique Vila-Matas, North American Jamaica Kincaid, Russian Lyudmila Ulitskaya, and Canadian Margaret Atwood.
Lower down on the Ladbrokes list, between Argentinian Mariana Enríquez and Canadian Michael Ondaatje, who was born in Sri Lanka, appears Mozambican Mia Couto with odds of 25/1.
Brazilian Adélia Prado is also listed with odds of 33/1, the same as Israeli David Grossman and North American Colson Whitehead.
The French news agency AFP surveyed several literary critics who expect the prize to go to a non-European woman. One of the judges, a Swedish journalist, suggested that it is time to award the Nobel Prize to a writer from Spanish-speaking Latin America, citing Argentinian Samantha Schweblin as an example.
The ceremony for announcing the Nobel Prize in Literature laureate for 2026 will take place on Thursday after 12:00 PM, as is customary, in Stockholm. In 2025, the laureate was Hungarian László Krasznahorkai. Since 2018, the prize has alternated between male and female recipients, and in 2024, it was awarded to South Korean Han Kang.
First established in 1901, the Nobel Prize in Literature aims to recognize a person who 'has created the most exceptional work in the field of literature in an ideal direction.' The Nobel Committee accepts applications until the end of January each year, which can be submitted by institutions or scholars in this field.