In the coming days, both central banks—the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB)—will release protocols from their meetings held last month, when they raised key rates in response to growing concerns about inflationary pressure.
The urgency among decision-makers at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank regarding a potential further interest rate hike in September has diminished amid weak US employment data and significant strain on French financial markets.
In the US, sustained economic growth supports the labor market, allowing the Fed to focus on inflation. The protocol from the Fed's September meeting, expected on Wednesday, may show that many policymakers were deeply concerned about price trends and anticipated raising rates at least one more time before the end of the year.
However, fresh employment data released on Friday showed lower job creation than expected and sluggish wage growth, confirming that the labor market is not fueling existing inflationary trends. Earlier this week, government revisions to the Fed's preferred price indicator showed some easing of inflation this year.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
Furthermore, two senior rate setters—Fed Vice President Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams—have given unambiguous signals over two consecutive days that they do not see an immediate need for the Fed to take another step. Investors have adjusted their rate hike expectations accordingly.
The US central banks will meet on October 27-28, just days before fierce midterm elections, which could color the outcomes with partisan politics.
On Thursday, the ECB will publish its report from the September 9-10 meeting, and investors will be looking for clues regarding the timing of the next ECB rate hike.
In the Eurozone, recent figures showed an acceleration of inflation in September above forecast levels, largely linked to energy costs driven by the war. Despite persistent high price pressures, investors consider a rate hike in October unlikely.
Bond market volatility has spread globally, with France being particularly affected due to its fractured parliament, which heightens concerns over the budget and deficit.
In other regions, Canadian unemployment and trade data will show the consequences of the country's tariff war with the US. Central banks in about a dozen countries plan to set rates, with hikes expected in India, Kenya, and Peru.
Asia
Significant attention will be paid to the Indian central bank, which will set borrowing costs on Wednesday. Economists expect the Reserve Bank to raise its repo rate to 5.5%, joining players like Japan, Australia, and the US in tightening policy.
Australia's Westpac Bank will release consumer confidence data on Monday, which is likely to show further decline following last week's rate hike.
Japan will present August wage data on Tuesday, with a special focus on whether real wage growth has continued for the eighth consecutive month.
Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines will release consumer price data during the week, and all three are expected to show accelerating inflation in September.
Throughout the week, several countries will release foreign exchange reserve data, with a focus on South Korea, Taiwan, and China to see if money from their growing trade surpluses is reflected in these figures. India and Thailand will also provide data.
Towards the end of the week or perhaps early next week, the central bank of China will announce September lending data, which will be closely watched for a reversal after the lending slowdown observed in August.
Europe, West Asia, Africa
France's fiscal issues are likely to remain in the spotlight, shifting focus to the ECB as a potential 'firefighter.'
Participants in the rate-setting events will include ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, Martin Kocher from Austria, and Pierre Wünsch from Belgium. The report from the central bank's September meeting, expected on Thursday, will also be scrutinized closely.
Increased efforts to select new ECB officials. Banco de España head Pablo Hernández de Córdoba and former Dutch central banker Klaas Knot—rivals vying for Christine Lagarde's presidency—will appear at the same event on Monday.
According to sources close to the matter, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with both candidates, including Knot, in the coming days.
Eurozone finance ministers may begin discussions on the successor to Executive Board member Isabelle Schnabel when they meet in Luxembourg on Thursday. This meeting will also be closely watched due to the French bond crisis.
Eurozone data includes several manufacturing reports. Starting Tuesday, Germany will publish factory orders, industrial production, and exports over several days. Manufacturing figures for France, Spain, and Italy will also arrive during the week.
Regional industrial challenges will occupy minds as the EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič visits Beijing later this week.
Bank of England comments could be the main event in the UK, which faces its own bond market issues. Five officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, are scheduled to speak on Thursday.
Sweden's inflation will be published on Thursday after the Riksbank shifted towards a probable rate hike. In Norway, where the central bank raised rates last month, the price index will be released on Friday.
In South Africa, Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Magngatho will speak at the Monetary Policy Review presentation on Tuesday.
Latin America
The Central Bank of Colombia announced a record decision on Monday to raise the key rate by a quarter point to 12.25% on September 30. The divided council decision reflects the beginning of easing tight monetary conditions but does not yet reverse the surge in consumer prices in 2026.
Confirmation of the BanRep decision may come with September inflation data. Preliminary consensus shows the overall rate has risen again to 6.24%, more than double the central bank's target.
Mexico will also provide protocols from its central bank's September meeting and fresh consumer price data. Banxico, maintaining the rate at 6.5% at its third meeting, has moved to a data-dependent orientation. Like Colombia, September data is likely to show another acceleration in inflation.
In monetary policy, the central banks of Peru and Uruguay face a difficult choice in upcoming meetings. In Peru, September inflation continued to rise above the target level, which could lead to impatience from Governor Julio Velarde and his colleagues after a year of holding the rate at 4.25%.
The Central Bank of Uruguay has kept the key rate at 5.75% since cutting it by 75 basis points in March and may find itself in a difficult position due to economic contraction in the second quarter on one hand and five months of faster consumer price growth on the other.
Inflation data will conclude the week, as Chile and Brazil are expected to publish higher figures for September—growth of 4.1% in the first and 4.22% in the second, both above the target level.
Elections in Brazil on Sunday, where 80-year-old President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva competes against right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in a very tight race, could change the landscape of Latin America's largest economy.
The Central Bank of Venezuela will publish monthly and annual inflation figures—the country's monetary authority resumed publishing these figures earlier in 2026. Monthly growth slowed below 10% in August compared to 32.6% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 534.2%.