Forecasts for petrol and diesel prices in South Africa for October have worsened, leading to record price levels. Drivers will face an expensive trip to the gas station next week as petrol and diesel prices are predicted to increase by more than 3 rand per liter, setting new records.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, the price of 95 octane petrol is expected to increase by 3.12 rand, and 93 octane petrol by 2.83 rand. The rise in diesel fuel prices is forecasted to be in the range of 2.73 rand for 500ppm to 3.13 rand for 50ppm.
These projected increases will cause all types of fuel to break price records. 95 octane petrol is expected to reach approximately 29.17 rand on the coast and 30.04 rand in Gauteng, while 93 octane petrol is expected to rise to approximately 29.75 rand.
The wholesale price of 500ppm diesel fuel is predicted to reach about 30.96 rand on the coast and 31.84 rand for inland residents. These forecasts are significantly higher than two weeks ago, when a petrol increase of approximately 2.40 rand and a diesel increase of 2.04 to 2.40 rand was predicted.
This increase follows a worrying rise in September, when both grades of petrol increased by 1.34 rand per liter, and diesel rose by an amount from 2.94 to 3.15 rand.
Additional pressure on fuel prices in October may come from the Slate Levy, which compensates oil companies for previous month's fluctuations, especially considering market volatility during the past period.
Sharp international oil prices have caused significant lost revenue for both petrol and diesel fuel. Brent crude reached a four-month high of $108 per barrel this month amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically new attacks by Iranian militants on Saudi Arabian infrastructure.
Oil markets fluctuate sharply with every change in the confrontation between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key point of pressure. Initially, Brent rose by more than $4 per barrel on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal that could have paved the way for a seven-day ceasefire and the resumption of strategic waterway operations. Although negotiations mediated by Qatar offered hope for an agreement, this optimism faded again, and Brent traded around $106–$107 per barrel on Tuesday.