A foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Namibia could potentially affect the cost of beef in South Africa if restrictions disrupt the supply of livestock to local feed farms.
In 2024, Namibia supplied about 81% of imported livestock to South Africa, much of this young stock heading to South African feed farms before entering the local beef supply chain.
The outbreak was confirmed in September after 10 out of 11 tested cattle showed positive results on a commercial farm in the Karasburg district of Namibia, which is part of a recognized FMD-free zone in the country.
Initially, Namibia suspended the movement, marketing, import, and export of cloven animals and their products while authorities worked to contain the disease. Although some restrictions were eased after monitoring showed the outbreak remained localized in the Haras region, cattle auctions and exports remain affected.
Implications for South Africa
Prolonged supply disruptions could force South African feed farms to compete for a smaller pool of available local livestock, increasing procurement costs and potentially putting upward pressure on beef prices.
However, an immediate sharp rise in prices is not expected. South Africa has its own livestock industry and existing reserves on feed farms that can help absorb short-term disruptions. Therefore, the duration of the restrictions in Namibia will be the decisive factor; if cattle trade resumes relatively quickly, the impact on South African consumers is likely to remain limited. Longer disruptions could have a greater impact on the local beef supply chain and ultimately on prices.