According to the new study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) titled 'Built for Change: Cities of Choice 4.0,' published on September 29, 2026, Tashkent ranked third among 80 cities based on the pace of change indicator.
Compared to other Central Asian and Caspian region cities, BCG noted that Almaty scored 53 points, Astana scored 52 points, and Baku scored 49 points, while Tashkent received 45 points.
The study is based on the analysis of over 200 indicators, using more than 5 million observations and surveying 24,000 residents. BCG evaluates cities across five areas: pace of change, economic opportunities, quality of urban environment, social capital, and government interaction. Of this, 80% of the assessment is based on objective statistical data, and 20% is based on residents' opinions.
For comparison purposes, cities were divided into five socio-economic groups based on GDP per capita and population size. Tashkent, Almaty, Astana, and Baku fell into the group of medium-sized developing cities with a GDP per capita of up to $25,000 USD and a metropolitan population of up to 4 million people. Damman, Mecca, Medina, and Ulaanbaatar are also in this group.
All four cities from this region made it into the global top 20 for pace of change. Tashkent scored 88 points, trailing only Shenzhen with 92 points and Riyadh with 91 points. Astana scored 77 points, Almaty scored 71 points, and Baku scored 64 points.
According to BCG, Kazakhstan's cities demonstrate a more balanced profile and strong positions in the areas of economic opportunities and interaction with state bodies. Citizen support reached 86 points in Astana and 85 points in Almaty.
Katerina Shapochka, Partner and Director at BCG, Head of the Company's Urban Development Center and one of the study's authors, noted: 'We see an interesting set: Almaty and Astana already possess a solid economic and institutional foundation and continue to change rapidly. For the city, this is a very good starting point. But the next stage is usually harder than the previous one: economic growth and institutional potential must be translated into the everyday quality of the urban environment, including initiating its renewal.'
The study emphasizes that rapid growth places additional pressure on urban infrastructure. Between 2015 and 2025, Astana's population increased by approximately 78%, while Shymkent saw a growth of 46%, and Almaty saw a growth of 39%.
BCG forecasts that the three largest cities in Kazakhstan could account for over 31% of the country's population by 2035, compared to about 25% today and 19% ten years ago.
The number of passenger cars in Central Asian cities has grown by approximately 22% between 2021 and 2025, which is the highest figure among the regional groups covered by the study.
According to BCG's preliminary assessment, Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent will require at least $13.7 billion in additional infrastructure investment by 2035, excluding housing construction. The actual amount may be higher.
BCG believes that municipal and national budgets, as well as traditional public-private partnerships, will be insufficient for all types of projects. The company suggests attracting private and institutional capital by using joint investments and directing part of the revenue generated from urban development to the next cycle of infrastructure projects.
Mikhail Volkov, Partner and Managing Director at BCG, head of the company's office in Kazakhstan, stated: 'The first step is to create a transparent portfolio of infrastructure projects for five-, ten-, and fifteen-year periods and determine the most suitable financing model for each: budgetary financing, PPP, joint development, or institutional capital.' He continued: 'The second is to form a professional investment function on the city's side that can prepare projects, work with investors, and manage the economy of urban land and assets.' And concluded: 'The third is to link these decisions to the city's master plan and economic strategy.'
BCG was founded in 1963 and has over 100 offices in more than 50 countries. The company opened representative offices in Tashkent and Baku in 2022, and in Almaty in 2024.


