According to a forecast prepared by the Climate Impact Lab, South Africa may face approximately 1200 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. This forecast is based on the current El Niño phenomenon.
The new report from the Climate Impact Lab indicates that this El Niño could be the strongest on record. The projection includes a margin of error of plus or minus 90 deaths.
Furthermore, the Climate Impact Lab estimates that during the first nine months of El Niño, from June 2026 to February 2027, 451,000 people worldwide could die from extreme heat.
The report warns that this climate phenomenon could also contribute to drought, wildfires, and floods due to changes in temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns across various regions. The greatest impact is expected in Global South countries.
Impact in Africa
In the Sahel region of Africa, the report forecasts 66,800 additional heat-related deaths over the next six months. Among the most affected countries are Nigeria, which is projected to suffer about 31,400 deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,500, Niger with 10,000, and Chad with 7,900.
The projected figure for South Africa places it among the countries expected to experience an increase in heat-related mortality between September and February. The report emphasizes that emergency response measures and increasing resilience in high-risk areas can prevent tens of thousands of deaths.
Recommended measures include early warning systems, cooling centers, and protection for outdoor workers. The Climate Impact Lab's adaptation inventory is based on peer-reviewed studies examining methods proven effective in saving lives.
Researchers also note that the current El Niño may serve as an example of future climate conditions, as it brings temperatures similar to those predicted to be reached due to climate change in about 20 years.
WHO Concerns
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that this weather pattern could create favorable conditions for cholera, as well as for disease-carrying insects, particularly mosquitoes. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in diseases such as malaria, chikungunya, and dengue fever.
Teresa Zakaria, WHO Head of Risk Reduction, Humanitarian Operations, and Climate Change, cautioned that the most severe consequences will occur when climate shocks intersect with weak health systems, limited access to medical care, food insecurity, population displacement, and humanitarian crises.
AFP reported that the UN World Meteorological Organization warned that the current El Niño is projected to be the strongest since comparable records began four decades ago, and its effects on global climate will be felt until 2027.
Additionally, the EU climate monitor reported that August was the hottest month on record globally, and ocean temperatures also reached unprecedented highs, while Western Europe concluded its warmest summer period.
The Ministry of Agriculture strongly recommended that farmers adopt climate-resilient agriculture to preserve soil moisture. The Ministry stated that methods consistent with conservation tillage principles should be used to retain moisture and minimize soil erosion. Farmers are also advised to implement risk reduction measures, such as avoiding unjustified expansion of cultivated areas and selecting appropriate varieties capable of withstanding dry and hot conditions.