The expectation is that Brazil's coffee production will reach its historical maximum in 2026. According to data released by the National Supply Company (Conab), which covers 99% of the harvested area, an increase of 19.6% compared to 2025 is forecast.
This positive result is attributed to the favorable biennial cycle of the crop, a 5.1% increase in the area dedicated to production, which will reach 1.95 million hectares, and a 13.8% growth in average productivity, rising from 30.4 to 34.6 bags per hectare.
Regarding bean types, Arabica coffee, which accounts for approximately 70% of national Brazilian production, is expected to total 48.2 million bags, representing a 34.8% increase compared to 2025. The estimate for Conilon coffee production is 19.4 million bags, which constitutes a 6.6% reduction compared to the previous year.
Minas Gerais, recognized as the main producing state, is expected to harvest 34.96 million bags of Arabica, benefiting from both the positive biennial cycle and adequate climatic conditions. Meanwhile, São Paulo projects a production of 6.19 million bags of this same variety.
In Espírito Santo, the main Brazilian producer of Conilon, total production is expected to decrease by 5.4%, reaching 16.48 million bags. This drop is mainly attributed to a 14.3% loss in Conilon, caused by low temperatures and irregular flowering.
In terms of exports, Brazil shipped 3.8 million bags of coffee to the international market in August, a volume 43.2% higher than recorded in the same period in 2025. However, the cumulative total from January to August showed a setback of 6.6%, totaling 24.6 million bags.
Conab, which is a public company linked to the Brazilian Federal Government, is responsible for managing agricultural policy, setting food prices, ensuring national food security, in addition to supervising stocks and conducting surveys on the national harvest.