Previously, consumers worldwide favored European cars. Then, Tesla electric vehicles gained popularity, but now the era of Chinese automobiles is arriving. Chinese cars are becoming increasingly sought after in various markets. Nevertheless, strict regulations are in place in several countries regarding Chinese companies, which hinders their entry into these markets.
The situation is similar for the American market. According to reports, if barriers for Chinese companies in the US market are removed, Chinese automakers could capture about ten percent of the market by 2038. This information is presented in a forecast from Bloomberg, based on estimates from the research firm Mobility Global.
Mobility Global presented various scenarios regarding the success of Chinese companies in the American market. In one such scenario, the firm suggested that Chinese automakers could sell 1.7 million vehicles annually in the US market, accounting for 11 percent of the total sales volume in the country.
Peter Nagel, Deputy Director of Vehicle Forecasting at Mobility Global, presented this report. This scenario assumes that Chinese vehicles manufactured in North America will gain access to the US market, while high tariffs on cars imported from China will not have a positive effect.
Nagel notes that there is a low or moderate probability that restrictions on these North American-made vehicles will be lifted within ten years. Therefore, realizing this forecast would require significant policy changes. The growth of Chinese companies is driven by their affordability.
Peter also explained that compact and mid-size crossovers from Chinese companies cost the same as an average used car in the US market. If these Chinese cars become available at the same price point, demand for new cars in the US will increase.
The report posits that in such a case, companies like BYD, Geely Auto, and SAIC Motor could begin exporting vehicles from factories in Mexico by 2029. Furthermore, by 2030, these companies could start production in American plants, provided that annual sales of their popular models exceed 40,000 units. This forecast comes against the backdrop of the start of a new round of high-level negotiations between the US and China.
