Many people comment on the cost of everyday items, such as coffee or supermarket products, concluding that prices for everything are higher than ever. However, the extent of this perception and whether it is confirmed by data was a topic of discussion with Juliana Inhasz, an economics professor at Insper, in a conversation with Olhar Digital.
The professor clarifies that it is incorrect to state that all prices move in the same direction; for example, the drop in electricity costs does not prevent other categories, such as food, from becoming more expensive. Furthermore, Inhasz points out that the way people feel these impacts varies because each individual consumes what is most convenient for them, resulting in distinct perceptions.
She also highlights the influence of recent price memory, explaining that people tend to remember values more frequently. If someone consumes coffee daily and its price rises, the increase is noticed immediately. In contrast, products bought only every 40 or 50 days may have their increases overlooked, leading to an overestimation of the adjustment when finally noticed.
In nominal terms, the prices of items like Coca-Cola, water, and rice are indeed higher. However, the analysis must focus on the impact of these values on purchasing power. According to the specialist, the nominal increase in prices is natural because it is passed on to salaries and contracts, generating subsequent increases.
To evaluate the situation correctly, it is necessary to compare salary growth with price increases. If the salary grows by 10% and prices by 5%, there is a real gain. However, if the salary grows by only 5% while prices rise by 10%, it constitutes a problematic scenario where purchasing power decreases.
There are several reasons justifying the current high or volatile prices. A primary factor is costs, covering fuel, energy, raw materials, transport, and wages. These multiple costs affect production directly or indirectly, raising final prices.
Another relevant element is seasonal factors, driven by climatic shocks. Changes in harvests, droughts, or sudden temperature shifts significantly impact production and, consequently, prices.
Demand pressures also contribute, intensified by a hot labor market, which keeps demand high even in an economic slowdown context. For Brazil, low productivity is cited as a structural factor limiting real income gain, hindering wage increases.
Inhasz explains that lower productivity makes production more expensive, forcing price increases to maintain profit margins, which makes prices structurally higher over time. Finally, fiscal imbalance, although it does not cause immediate increases on the shelf, represents a long-term effect that reduces investors' risk appetite, limiting investments in technology and machinery and thus harming productivity.