According to data from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the expectations of the population regarding inflation decreased again in August, reaching the lowest level since the start of observations. The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months was 9.8%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than in June and July. The median estimate, which sharply rose to 9% a month ago, returned to the 8% mark.
Regional and professional differences in forecasts
Among regions, the highest inflation forecasts were recorded in the Fergana region (11.7%), followed by Tashkent (11.4%) and Surkhondaryo region (10.9%). The lowest figures were noted in Jizzakh region (8.1%), Khorezm region (8.4%), as well as in Navoi and Bukhara regions at 8.6%.
By profession, IT specialists gave the highest forecasts (11.4%). In the services and transport sectors, expectations were 11.1% and 10.9%, respectively. The lowest estimates were among agricultural workers and students, who named 8.7%.
Impact of income on inflation expectations
The highest price growth forecast was again reported by citizens with a monthly income of 30 million soums or more, whose average figure reached 15.8%. Among respondents with an income of 15–20 million soums, this figure was 12.4%, while for groups with incomes of 7–15 million soums and 20–30 million soums, it ranged from 10.5% to 11%.
The lowest inflation expectations were among citizens with an income of up to 2 million soums (7.9%) and those earning 2–4 million soums (9%).
Main factors influencing price growth
Respondents indicated higher utility tariffs and increased energy costs as the main factors influencing their price growth forecasts. These factors were named by 53% and 52% of respondents, respectively, which is slightly lower than the July figures. Transport costs ranked third, mentioned by 32% of respondents. The share of citizens linking price growth to wage increases and benefits slightly increased to 28%. Exchange rate fluctuations remained the least frequently mentioned factor, garnering 14% of mentions.
Inflation expectations among businesses
Inflation expectations among entrepreneurs also continued to decline. The average forecast among businessmen was 9.6%, which is the lowest level since the publication of relevant data. This figure dropped by 0.2 percentage points compared to July and by 0.3 percentage points compared to June. The median estimate among businesses followed the same trend as the population indicator: after rising to 9% in July, it fell to 8% in August.
By region, the highest inflation expectations among businesses were registered in Karakalpakstan (11.5%). Fergana region came in second with a figure of 11.4%. In Tashkent region, this figure was 10.3%, and in the capital, 9.9%. The lowest price growth forecasts among businesses were recorded in Navoi region (8.3%) and Namangan region (8.7%).
Sectoral factors for businesses
By sector, the highest inflation expectations among enterprises were related to transport and education, at 10.9% each, followed by agriculture at 10.6%. Figures were 7% among artisans, 8.7% in trade, and 9.2% in construction.
For businesses, the main driver of price growth was increased energy costs, named by 55% of respondents. This was followed by utility tariffs (50%), and transport costs were mentioned by 34%. Tax burden and exchange rate fluctuations were identified as factors contributing to inflationary pressure by 15% and 14% of entrepreneurs, respectively.