Meghalaya, including Mawsynram and Cherrapunji, is traditionally known as one of the wettest regions in the world. However, a new study warns of an increasing risk of drought in these areas as climate change alters the pattern of precipitation.
The climate is changing such that rainfall now occurs less frequently but more intensely. The number of rainy days is decreasing, while temperatures are constantly rising. This causes water to run off the surface quickly instead of seeping into the soil, which prevents consistent water supply even during the monsoon season.
This study was published in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology Journal. The analysis covered climatic and hydrological data from 1981 to 2100. Researchers Ashesh Rudra Paul and Pankaj Kumar Roy found that the maximum local increase in daily intensity index is 0.08 millimeters per day per year. Meanwhile, the average number of rainy days decreases by 0.40 days per year.
Meghalaya's geographical location exacerbates this problem: it features steep hills and a thin layer of soil. When rains fall in heavy downpours, the water quickly runs off the surface without having time to replenish groundwater. Despite abundant rainfall during the monsoon season, there is a water deficit in the dry months.
The study indicates that this concentration of precipitation increases surface runoff and reduces absorption. Furthermore, rising temperatures accelerate evaporation and plant water loss, rapidly depleting soil moisture. This intensifies the demand for water on non-rainy days, creating conditions for drought.
The researchers used the standardized three-month precipitation evapotranspiration index. The analysis showed that in the near and distant future, droughts will occur more frequently and become more intense, based on the scenario of rapid economic growth and fossil fuel dependence. This will also affect river flow.
The Sari-Gawai and Surma-Meghna basins, which originate in or receive water from Meghalaya, were studied. According to the SSP585 model, the average annual flow in the Sari-Gawai basin could decrease by 9.8% and in the Surma-Meghna by 11.6% in the distant future. River water will concentrate mainly during the monsoon, peaking in June-July, and then drop sharply, increasing the risk of hydrological drought in subsequent months.
Local residents also report water shortages; inhabitants of Sohara and Mawsynram report that many sources and springs have begun drying up earlier. This trend became noticeable as early as mid-September. One local resident noted that many springs in the Sohara area are drying up. It should be noted that the study did not account for anthropogenic factors such as deforestation, urbanization, land-use change, and excessive groundwater exploitation, which also affect water availability.
The researchers emphasized the need to implement water resource management strategies. It is important to consider not only the total amount of precipitation but also its intensity, distribution, temperature rise, and basin flow levels. Collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and local communities is essential. Traditional water conservation methods in regions like Meghalaya must be strengthened, and modern technologies must be introduced. This study demonstrates that even in areas with abundant rain, climate change can pose a drought threat, and only proper water management and environmental conservation can ensure a secure future.
