Despite the recent introduction of visa restrictions by the US against South African citizens, which has exacerbated strained relations between Washington and Pretoria, experts believe this will not lead to the American market closing off exports worth 260 billion rand annually.
Gold and platinum account for more than half of all goods that South Africa supplies to the world's largest economy. Donald Mackay, founder and CEO of XA Global Trade Advisors, emphasized the need to separate political conflicts from trade ties between the two countries.
Mackay stated that, in his opinion, US President Donald Trump does not intend to stop importing gold or platinum, which constitute more than half of supplies to the US. His comments came after the US announced visa restrictions against certain South Africans, adding tension to existing relations between Washington and Pretoria.
Minor Step
US Ambassador Brent Bozell subsequently characterized these restrictions as "just the first step in a series of escalating measures," while South Africa rejected such an interpretation of its policy. Last year, South Africa exported goods worth 260 billion rand to the US, accounting for 3.3% of its gross domestic product, according to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition. This figure increased compared to 238 billion rand in 2024.
More than 89% of these export shipments entered the US under standard Most Favoured Nation terms, rather than preferential schemes such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Mackay noted that although Trump disrupted trade, it did not prove to be a catastrophe for South Africa. According to the US, total trade between the two countries reached $28.8 billion (1.77 trillion rand) in 2025.
Trade Partner
The US remains one of South Africa's largest trading partners, although this relationship is heavily skewed towards exports from South Africa. The last political dispute occurred amid trade tensions, including US tariffs on products such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum, as well as actions under the Trade Act. Mackay cautioned against assuming that the latest political escalation will necessarily impact trade.
He stressed that the situation is currently unclear, and extreme caution is necessary to avoid fueling this conflict, which he believes Trump desires. He expressed doubt about how much of the conflict is real and how much is mere empty talk.
African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), introduced in 2000, was long a major concern regarding the deteriorating relationship between the countries. This act grants eligible African nations preferential access to the US market for qualified products and has been extended until the end of 2028.
However, Mackay stated that the significance of this program to South Africa's overall trade partnership was much smaller than the attention it attracted. He noted that despite constant discussions about AGOA, the total monetary value of the program up to Independence Day was only 2 billion rand per year, which, while sounding like a lot, is a negligible margin in the context of South Africa's trade, where trillions of rand are involved annually.
No Significant Difference
Automobiles were the main beneficiary of AGOA, as the program eliminated the standard 2.5% US import duty on relevant South African vehicles. Following this, Trump's measures under Section 232 introduced an additional 25% tariff on auto imports, which significantly reduced the value of AGOA preferences. Mackay explained that the rate now applied is 25% plus 2.5%, with the 2.5% provided as a discount.
He concluded that this makes absolutely no difference because AGOA does not affect the vast majority of trade, which is already duty-free, as it includes minerals and precious stones such as platinum. Agriculture is an exception. Mackay added that the only sector that truly benefits is agriculture. Thus, they certainly face some difficulties, but the US is an important market, and they certainly do not want to lose it, and AGOA helped them in this regard. Nevertheless, he concluded that it is a relatively small part of overall trade with the US, so there is no need to worry too much about AGOA.