According to data from leading traders and importers, the cost of cargo transportation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Persian Gulf countries has significantly increased following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the war between the USA, Israel, and Iran. It was noted that rates could increase by another 25 percent in the coming months due to container shipping problems and disruptions caused by the strait's closure.
Anis Sadjan, Vice Chairman of Danube Group, reported that the cost of one shipment has risen from the previous $1,000 to $10,000–$12,000, and may reach $15,000 in the near future. He also noted that the closure of Hormuz has led to a shortage of containers from China, Italy, and other countries.
According to Sadjan, delivery times for goods to the UAE and the region have increased from 25 days to 60, and sometimes up to 90 days, with a military surcharge added. He emphasized that over the last six months since the closure of Hormuz, rates have not decreased.
Speaking at the Dubai Milano Traders Meet event in Dubai, Sadjan added that many recently launched projects require raw materials, forcing developers and manufacturers to complete their work despite rising prices. He also noted that importing companies may benefit from demand in the coming months.
He mentioned that his home furniture manufacturing company, Casa Milano, demonstrated a 20% year-on-year growth despite the conflict, and Danube Building Materials also showed growth.
The supply chain disruption occurred after the start of the war between the USA, Israel, and Iran on February 28, 2026, affecting the movement of goods and energy vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Azar Sadjan, Director of Casa Milano, reported that freight, which previously cost $1,000–$2,000, has risen to $6,000 and is now $10,000–$12,000. He specified that order fulfillment times have increased from approximately 30 days to at least 60, or possibly 70 days. Additionally, brass prices have increased by 30% compared to pre-conflict levels, increasing the final product cost.
To compensate for this, the company is expanding exports, supplying goods to 10–12 African countries, including Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia, as well as Georgia. Azar Sadjan also noted that direct purchases in China have opened new opportunities for exporting clients, and the export share has grown from about 10% of business in 2020 to 30–35%.
He also noted the high utility of the ports of Khorfakkan and Fujairah amid regional difficulties.
Masna Hasin, Marketing and Growth Director at tradeX Link, reported that rates for 40-foot high cube containers have risen from approximately $2,000 to estimated quotes of $7,000–$11,000, representing an increase of 250–450%. She calculated that this adds $50,000 to $90,000 to ten containers, which is $5 to $9 per unit considering 1,000 sold units per container.
Hasin predicts that rates will likely remain high on disrupted routes in the fourth quarter. With continued pressure on fuel and capacity, she forecasts a further increase of 5–15% in peak weeks compared to September quotes, for example, from $9,000 to $9,450–$10,350. She emphasized that this is an estimate based on judgment, not a global average.
She advised importers and traders to check the dates for factory resumption after Chinese holidays—Mid-Autumn Festival (September 25–27) and National Day (October 1–7)—as missed shipments could jeopardize Christmas and year-end deliveries. According to her, delivery is considered complete when the goods can be sold, installed, or put into operation.
Azar Sadjan believes that if the conflict ends now, recovery to pre-war levels will take only a few months due to the high resilience of the local economy and business community.