Hideo Kojima expresses shock over Sony abandoning Physint

After three decades of collaboration between Hideo Kojima and PlayStation, Sony made the decision not to proceed with the development of Physint, a highly anticipated project from the creator of Metal Gear Solid.

The game was not canceled, but after about three months spent searching for a new partner, Kojima Productions found a new home with Sony's main competitor: Physint will now be published by Xbox.

Initially, this change seems to represent a significant setback for PlayStation, considering the notoriety of Hideo Kojima, one of the few global developers whose names are as recognized as their own titles.

However, there is another perspective on this situation. Information released after the announcement indicates that Physint had already exceeded deadlines and risked substantially exceeding its budget, even while being far from release. Additionally, the two previous games from Kojima Productions, Death Stranding and Death Stranding 2, did not meet the revenue targets set by Sony.

This transforms what seemed like a direct competition between PlayStation and Xbox into a more complex issue: to what extent does it justify for a console manufacturer to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in one of the industry's biggest names when prestige, creativity, and cultural influence do not guarantee financial return?

As mentioned, Death Stranding and Death Stranding 2 failed to meet Sony's revenue expectations. According to estimates from Alinea Analytics, Death Stranding 2 sold approximately 2.5 million copies for PlayStation 5 and PC, generating around US$170 million in revenue. Although this is a considerable amount, it may not represent high profit when compared to the costs of an AAA production of this magnitude.

With Physint, the warning sign appeared earlier. The project was already facing delays and threatening to blow the budget, even years before hitting the market. For Sony, the decision was not just about betting on Kojima again, but about the potential risk of investing hundreds of millions in intellectual property belonging to Kojima Productions that would no longer be exclusive to PlayStation.

This transition differs from what happens in cinema or music. Unlike a director switching studios, where the potential audience remains stable, in the video game industry, a publisher change can imply a platform shift, drastically altering the number and profile of consumers.

The PlayStation 5 has already surpassed 95 million units sold globally, while the Xbox Series X|S has a visibly smaller installed base. Analyzing only the consoles, Physint would leave behind the largest platform of the current generation.

However, Microsoft's approach appears different. Physint will also be released for PC, which integrates the computer as a crucial element in the equation. This suggests that Sony and Microsoft might be evaluating the same project but reaching opposite financial conclusions.

For Sony, Physint represented financing an extremely expensive game whose intellectual property was not controlled and could migrate to other systems. For Microsoft, it means incorporating Hideo Kojima into its Xbox and PC catalog, strengthening a partnership that already includes OD.

Kojima's value, therefore, may not have decreased; what changed is who has the capacity to justify paying for him. Another relevant point is that Physint does not belong to Sony; the intellectual property remains under the control of Kojima Productions.

This profoundly alters the view of an investment that could total hundreds of millions of dollars. When Sony finances a title from its own franchise, such as God of War or The Last of Us, it invests in an internal asset. A great success can generate sequels, remasters, adaptations, and licensed products for decades.

With Physint, the dynamic is different. Sony would assume a large part of the financial risk of developing and promoting an expensive AAA production, while the intellectual property would remain with Kojima Productions. Depending on the terms, today's financed success could become available on competing platforms.

The situation is peculiar because the most valuable asset in the negotiation may not be Physint, but rather Hideo Kojima himself. His name attracts press coverage and generates anticipation, giving the project rare relevance. However, Kojima does not belong to Sony either, potentially leading this prestige to another partner.

Thus, Sony's decision seems less like the end of a historical relationship and more like a portfolio choice. If the company must choose between investing hundreds of millions in property it doesn't control or allocating that amount to internal franchises, the question shifts from 'is Kojima worth it?' to 'how much of that value remains with Sony after launch?'.

Considering that Physint was delayed, over budget, and followed a commercial history below Sony's expectations with the two Death Stranding titles, why did Microsoft take on the project? Perhaps the companies are not buying the same thing. For Sony, the focus seems to be on production cost versus monetary return. For Microsoft, Physint might offer a value that transcends units sold.

The first distinction lies in scope. Despite the smaller installed base of the Xbox Series X|S compared to the PlayStation 5, Microsoft's strategy does not solely depend on console sales, as PC is integrated from the start, expanding the potential audience. There is also the benefit to the Xbox brand: associating Hideo Kojima's next major espionage game with Xbox helps Microsoft occupy a space historically linked to PlayStation. Furthermore, Microsoft already collaborates with Kojima on OD, making Physint an expansion, not a beginning, of a partnership. Accepting the risk of a second project can solidify a long-term collaboration.

This implies that Physint should not be analyzed solely by the metric of 'how many copies it needs to sell to break even.' Part of the return may lie in the ability to attract users to the Xbox and PC ecosystem, boost subscriptions, and reinforce brand perception, placing Microsoft at the center of discussions about Kojima's new projects.

Sony seems to have viewed Physint as an increasingly expensive project with a difficult financial justification. Microsoft, on the other hand, may have seen the opportunity to acquire not just a game, but years of association with Hideo Kojima with the Xbox brand. Perhaps the answer to Kojima's value depends much more on who is paying than on sales volume.