According to the World Health Organization's (WHO) first annual report on the state of global health workforce, a shortage of medical personnel could affect up to 67 countries by 2030. These forecasts are based on an analysis of official data provided by over 90% of the organization's member states.
Globally, there is a trend toward the aging of medical staff: almost one in four doctors worldwide may retire within the next decade. Furthermore, nearly a quarter of all doctors globally are over 55 years old, with this proportion reaching approximately one-third in high-income countries. This assessment was made based on the latest available data from 122 countries.
Parallel to this process of workforce aging, the demand for healthcare is growing due to demographic changes—the aging of the population in many nations. The combination of aging patients and healthcare workers creates increased pressure on existing healthcare systems.
Despite a 52% increase in global healthcare worker provision over the last two decades, serious disparities remain. In 2006, the average ratio was 44.8 specialists per 10,000 people (doctors, nurses, midwives, dentists, or pharmacists), while this figure reached 67.9 by 2025. The total number of healthcare and care workers exceeded 70 million.
Significant differences in provision are observed between regions: in the WHO European region, the number of doctors is 13 times higher than in the African region, and six times higher for nurses and midwives. WHO emphasizes that uneven distribution and the lack of qualified specialists continue to impede people's access to medical care.
The organization strongly recommends taking into account the factor of workforce aging when planning the recruitment, retention, and training of medical personnel. An additional factor exacerbating the problem is international specialist migration. Last year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development noted that doctors and nurses often move to countries offering better working conditions and higher salaries, thereby intensifying the labor shortage in countries where it already exists.