The South African fresh produce market is exhibiting classic economic dynamics: low supply and weakening demand mid-month are leading to opposing movements in commodity prices.
According to the latest GroundRules market update, prepared by agricultural economist Konsa Morabo from Agricultural Market Trends (AMT), the most notable event was onions, whose prices have soared by a record 219% compared to the same period last year.
Nevertheless, further growth across most of the fresh produce sector may be limited due to weaker consumer purchasing power.
The onion market remains a central element of fresh produce trade. Last week, the average price for onions reached an incredible record of R154.70 per 10kg bag, directly linked to a 31% drop in national volumes year-on-year.
Category breakdowns show the intensity of this surge: medium-sized Grade 1 brown onions averaged R160 per 10kg, white onions averaged R170 per 10kg, and red onions reached a striking R239 per 10kg.
Morabo explained this difference by stating that 'people cannot easily substitute onions'; as a staple ingredient, demand remains relatively stable even with reduced supply.
Following the official end of the harvest season in Ceres, northern growing areas are replenishing the deficit, although supplies are arriving very slowly. Morabo noted: 'At some point these northern volumes should increase and put pressure on prices. The million-dollar question is simply: when?' He added that the weakening demand mid-week might provide the first signs of easing price pressure.
Besides onions, limited supply is struggling to sustain price increases against moderate consumer demand mid-month. Potatoes rose by 1.6%, reaching R65.93 per 10kg, as the market is between production seasons. The average potato price was R68, while large global Grade 1 varieties were R77, and medium global Grade 1 varieties were R70.
Morabo warns that due to low demand, the limited supply may not be enough to prevent a slight price decrease this week.
Tomatoes fell by 8%, reaching R7.20/kg, despite a 13% volume decrease compared to the previous week. Prices could fall further in the short term, but support might return by the end of next week.
Morabo advised producers to monitor the weather: 'Another cold front and more rain are approaching, which could ultimately restrict supply and once again support tomato prices by the end of the month.'
Carrots dropped by 4% to R4.95/kg with 17% lower volumes, and further declines are expected as harvesting increases. Bell peppers also fell by 4% to R17.45/kg: green at R12.81, yellow at R30.70, and red at R29.70. Increased supply is forecast by the end of the year according to normal seasonal cycles, with peak prices around July or August.
Morabo also explained the price drops for cabbage, sweet potatoes, and pumpkins, while spinach, green beans, and cucumbers showed growth.
Oranges are at the complete opposite pole compared to onions. Although orange prices slightly increased to R2.43/kg, they remain 56% lower compared to last year due to massive supply—volumes grew by a staggering 121% compared to last year. Relief for citrus producers may not come until October, when supply begins to contract.
Lemons rose to R4.06/kg, and grapefruit jumped 16% to R6.10/kg. In contrast, banana prices rose by 5% to R12.47/kg (about R225 per 18kg box), although weaker demand is likely to keep prices flat or slightly lower.
Apples increased to R9.93/kg, and pears rose by 2% to R9.26/kg; both crops are expected to maintain an upward trend towards the end of the year as local stocks dwindle.
Avocados remained stable at R16.63/kg (Fuertes: R27; Hass: R13), and table grapes fell to R51.47/kg, while pineapples rose to R8.47/kg, and blueberries increased by 5%, trading at R74.85/kg.
Looking ahead, Morabo emphasized that monitoring volume changes is far more important than reacting to current price spikes. He stated: 'A high price attracts attention. But the next batch arriving on the market can change things. So don't just look at today's price. Watch what comes next, who is buying, and whether demand and supply are ready to switch places.'
The full GroundRules fresh produce market update for September 15, 2026, is available in the accompanying video. Farmers and industry stakeholders can also join the GroundRules WhatsApp group for the latest price data and market analysis. AMT provides reliable agricultural market information and analysis through its database, and GroundRules delivers this information to the audience in a convenient weekly format.