Forecasts for gasoline and diesel fuel prices in October indicate a significant increase in cost. International oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday, reaching the mark of $108.06 per barrel, which is linked to the absence of signs of easing the crisis in the Middle East. These changes in oil prices will have a serious impact on South African consumers next month.
According to the latest daily report from the Central Energy Fund, the price of AI-95 gasoline is expected to rise to 2.41 South African Rand in October, while diesel fuel will increase by an amount ranging from 2.04 to 2.40 Rand for different brands. These forecasts are growing as international oil prices show an upward trend; just a week ago, an increase of 1.92 Rand for gasoline and 2.03 Rand for diesel was predicted. Thus, South Africa is likely to face record fuel prices next month.
Under current estimates, drivers will have to pay about 28.30 Rand on the coast and 29.32 Rand per liter of AI-95 gasoline in Gauteng, exceeding previous records of 27.19 and 28.06 Rand. The wholesale price of 50 ppm diesel fuel is expected to rise to at least 31.94 Rand, significantly surpassing the previous maximum of 30.62 Rand. These increases follow a substantial rise that was already implemented in September, when both grades of gasoline increased by 1.34 Rand per liter, and diesel fuel increased by an amount ranging from 2.94 to 3.15 Rand.
Oil Price Increase
International oil prices rose sharply on Monday when Brent Crude exceeded the $107 mark amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, intensifying concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies. Brent reached a four-month high, showing a 9% increase over the last week, crossing the $100 threshold for the first time since July. According to AFP, the market remains focused on the Middle East, where new security issues threaten key export routes.
The situation is complicated by Saudi Arabia temporarily closing its pipelines in the east and west following drone attacks in the region, and a merchant vessel being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, resulting in one death and three injuries, according to Iranian authorities. Although the strait was free for transit before the war began, Iran now requires ships to obtain permission before crossing and is considering imposing service charges. Ships that do not comply with these requirements regularly become targets of Iranian attacks, adding uncertainty to global oil supplies. Furthermore, Oman has postponed negotiations between Iran and Gulf states regarding the future of the strategic waterway.
Truce Delayed
Last week, US President Donald Trump predicted that the war with Iran would end immediately after the November midterm elections. He claimed that Tehran was prolonging the conflict to influence voting and stated that fuel prices would not drop before then. Bianca Botes, CEO of Citadel Global, noted: 'The forecast warrants skepticism, given that when the campaign started on February 28th, it was expected to last only a few weeks, but now the market has a political date tied to military escalation, which has lasted eight weeks without any de-escalation steps being taken.'